First published as an Advance ArticleSince publication of the 1998 UNEP Assessment, there has been continued rapid expansion of the literature on UV-B radiation. Many measurements have demonstrated the inverse relationship between column ozone amount and UV radiation, and in a few cases long-term increases due to ozone decreases have been identified. The quantity, quality and availability of ground-based UV measurements relevant to assessing the environmental impacts of ozone changes continue to improve. Recent studies have contributed to delineating regional and temporal differences due to aerosols, clouds, and ozone. Improvements in radiative transfer modelling capability now enable more accurate characterization of clouds, snow-cover, and topographical effects.A standardized scale for reporting UV to the public has gained wide acceptance. There has been increased use of satellite data to estimate geographic variability and trends in UV. Progress has been made in assessing the utility of satellite retrievals of UV radiation by comparison with measurements at the Earth's surface. Global climatologies of UV radiation are now available on the Internet.Anthropogenic aerosols play a more important role in attenuating UV irradiances than has been assumed previously, and this will have implications for the accuracy of UV retrievals from satellite data. Progress has been made inferring historical levels of UV radiation using measurements of ozone (from satellites or from ground-based networks) in conjunction with measurements of total solar radiation obtained from extensive meteorological networks.We cannot yet be sure whether global ozone has reached a minimum. Atmospheric chlorine concentrations are beginning to decrease. However, bromine concentrations are still increasing. While these halogen concentrations remain high, the ozone layer remains vulnerable to further depletion from events such as volcanic eruptions that inject material into the stratosphere. Interactions between global warming and ozone depletion could delay ozone recovery by several years, and this topic remains an area of intense research interest.Future changes in greenhouse gases will affect the future evolution of ozone through chemical, radiative, and dynamic processes. In this highly coupled system, an evaluation of the relative importance of these processes is difficult; studies are ongoing. A reliable assessment of these effects on total column ozone is limited by uncertainties in lower stratospheric response to these changes.At several sites, changes in UV differ from those expected from ozone changes alone, possibly as a result of long-term changes in aerosols, snow cover, or clouds. This indicates a possible interaction between climate change and UV radiation. Cloud reflectance measured by satellite has shown a long-term increase at some locations, especially in the Antarctic region, but also in Central Europe, which would tend to reduce the UV radiation.Even with the expected decreases in atmospheric chlorine, it will be several years b...
The Montreal Protocol is working, but it will take several decades for ozone to return to 1980 levels. The atmospheric concentrations of ozone depleting substances are decreasing, and ozone column amounts are no longer decreasing. Mid-latitude ozone is expected to return to 1980 levels before mid-century, slightly earlier than predicted previously. However, the recovery rate will be slower at high latitudes. Springtime ozone depletion is expected to continue to occur at polar latitudes, especially in Antarctica, in the next few decades. Because of the success of the Protocol, increases in UV-B radiation have been small outside regions affected by the Antarctic ozone hole, and have been difficult to detect. There is a large variability in UV-B radiation due to factors other than ozone, such as clouds and aerosols. There are few long-term measurements available to confirm the increases that would have occurred as a result of ozone depletion. At mid-latitudes UV-B irradiances are currently only slightly greater than in 1980 (increases less than ~5%), but increases have been substantial at high and polar latitudes where ozone depletion has been larger. Without the Montreal Protocol, peak values of sunburning UV radiation could have been tripled by 2065 at mid-northern latitudes. This would have had serious consequences for the environment and for human health. There are strong interactions between ozone depletion and changes in climate induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs). Ozone depletion affects climate, and climate change affects ozone. The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has had a marked effect on climate change. The calculated reduction in radiative forcing due to the phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) far exceeds that from the measures taken under the Kyoto protocol for the reduction of GHGs. Thus the phase-out of CFCs is currently tending to counteract the increases in surface temperature due to increased GHGs. The amount of stratospheric ozone can also be affected by the increases in the concentration of GHGs, which lead to decreased temperatures in the stratosphere and accelerated circulation patterns. These changes tend to decrease total ozone in the tropics and increase total ozone at mid and high latitudes. Changes in circulation induced by changes in ozone can also affect patterns of surface wind and rainfall. The projected changes in ozone and clouds may lead to large decreases in UV at high latitudes, where UV is already low; and to small increases at low latitudes, where it is already high. This could have important implications for health and ecosystems. Compared to 1980, UV-B irradiance towards the end of the 21st century is projected to be lower at mid to high latitudes by between 5 and 20% respectively, and higher by 2-3% in the low latitudes. However, these projections must be treated with caution because they also depend strongly on changes in cloud cover, air pollutants, and aerosols, all of which are influenced by climate change, and their future is uncertain. S...
We use action spectra published by the International Commission on Illumination to examine diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations in erythemally weighted (sunburning) UV-a health risk, and vitamin D-weighted UV-a health benefit. Vitamin Dweighted UV is more strongly dependent on ozone and solar zenith angle. Consequently, its diurnal, seasonal and geographic variability is more pronounced than for erythemally weighted UV. We then investigate relationships between the two quantities. An algorithm is developed and used to relate vitamin D production to the widely used UV index, to help the public to optimize their exposure to UV radiation. In the summer at noon, there should at mid-latitudes be sufficient UV to photosynthesize optimal vitamin D in $1 min for full body exposure, whereas skin damage occurs after $15 min. Further, while it should be possible to photosynthesize vitamin D in the winter at midlatitudes, the amount of skin that must be exposed is larger than from the hands and face alone. This raises the question of whether the action spectrum for vitamin D production is correct, since studies have reported that production of vitamin D is not possible in the winter at mid-latitudes.
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