In 2016 the first Strategy for Heating and Cooling of the European Union has shown that district heating and cooling networks can integrate renewable energies in an increasingly energy-efficient built environment. At the same time, the heating and cooling sector is probably the most diverse and least mapped component of the European energy system. The aim of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas is to improve the knowledge base for the geographical distribution of heat and cooling demands across Europe. Demand densities of the demanded thermal services themselves, the spatial coherence of these demands, and their location relative to sources of heating greatly affect the economy of district heating schemes compared to individual solutions. The objective is therefore to develop a comprehensive model, which can be used to a) quantify heat demands by density, b) group coherent areas with demands into prospective supply zones, c) produce supply curves for these zones, and d) ultimately calculate local energy mixes on the basis of allocated excess heat as well as renewable energy sources. The developed method spatially disaggregates national demand data to high-resolution geospatial data on urban structures. The resulting atlas allows for an advanced quantitative screening process, which can establish the basis for energy systems analyses relying on geographically explicit information on the heating demand and supply volumes and costs. The present paper presents version 4 of the Pan-European Thermal Atlas, which takes another step towards higher spatial resolution and confidence in comparison to its predecessors, version 1 to 3. For the first time, a 100m resolution heat atlas of Europe is being presented, which may help describing the heating sector in the required spatial resolution. By means of spatial statistical analyses using ordinary least square linear regressions, multiple spatial inputs such as population, degree of built-up and its derivatives are turned into a coherent model of the urban tissue. Plot ratios form the basis of models of heat demand in single and multi-family residential
District heating has the potential to play a key role in the transition towards a renewable energy system. However, the development towards reduced heat demands threatens the feasibility of district heating. Despite this challenge, opportunity exists in the form of fourth generation district heating, which operates at lower temperatures and enables better renewable integration. This article investigates this challenge by examining the district heating potential within three scenarios: The first is a reference scenario with current heat demand and temperatures, the second includes heat demand savings and the third includes reduced grid temperatures in addition to heat savings. To examine the scenarios, two models are developed. The first is a heat atlas model, in which heat demands are mapped on an address level. The second model assesses district heating expansion potentials based on economic costs. The models are applied using an example case of The Northern Region of Denmark. The article concludes that the district heating potential is highest in the reference scenario. When heat savings are introduced, district heating expansions, in most cases, will not be feasible. Introducing low-temperature district heating modestly increases the feasible expansion potential. This general conclusion is highly dependent on the specific system examined.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.