Heat Roadmap Europe: Towards EU-Wide, local heat supply strategies

Möller, Bernd; Wiechers, Eva; Persson, Urban; Grundahl, Lars; Lund, Rasmus Søgaard; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2019.04.098

Cited by 70 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…While fuel shifts historically have been observed, it has been more difficult to find examples of radical supply chain shifts to collective large-scale infrastructures. Across the EU MSs, supplying 50% of FEC for heating with district heating and 50% with heat pumps in areas with low heat densities, combined with heat savings around 30-50% of projected heat demands have been shown as a cost-efficient approach [65,70,71]. This paper has shown that overall FEC for residential heating has decreased on an EU-28 scale, but the pace needs to increase to reach advised levels of heat savings.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Electric heating as a primary strategy for Europe can increase the strain on the electricity grids significantly as the magnitude of the heat demands compared to the current electricity demands is in the order of magnitude of a factor 2 to 4, and with a distribution over the year concentrated in the winter [4]. While individual heat pumps can decrease the peak demands and save expansion of electricity distributions grids and peak power plants [22], such strategies can be combined with more energy efficient buildings and DH [64,65].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The EU's EED's article 14 on comprehensive assessments already mandate that such analyses be carried out [60]. Considerations of heat demand location and densities for evaluating the potential of collective and individual heat supply systems is crucial [65,69]. While the replacement of millions of individual boilers and stoves across the EU is a large strategic and governance task, transitions towards new fuel supply is possible in the residential sector as seen in the decrease of oil and coal for residential heating.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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EU-28 Residential Heat Supply and Consumption: Historical Development and Status

Bertelsen

Mathiesen

2020

Energies

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EU is moving towards a climate neutrality goal in 2050 with heating of buildings posing a major challenge. This paper provides a deep understanding of the historical development, path dependency and current status of the EU-28 residential heat sectors to inform strategy and policy makers and to open up this black box. Data is combined for buildings, installed technologies, fuel consumption and energy supply for Member States from 1990 to 2015, to analyse the importance of large-scale infrastructures and supply chains. Primary energy supply for residential heating is mainly based on fossil fuels; 70% in 2015 with 69% imported. The building level technologies are dominated by non-condensing boilers and stoves. Primary and final energy consumption decreased in spite of an increase in the total occupied living area in most countries. Path-dependency effects are found in the residential heat supply in EU. The analysis show path-dependent trajectories are present in most Member States, especially regarding natural gas infrastructure. The period shows many options for decarbonisation are not used to the full potential, e.g., energy efficiency in buildings, district heating, heat pumps. Past experiences should be considered when developing new decarbonisation strategies in Member States and on the EU level.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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EU-28 Residential Heat Supply and Consumption: Historical Development and Status

Bertelsen

Mathiesen

2020

Energies

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“…Appendix A.1.4. Heat Networks Heat networks are widely used across Europe, and could have significant future potential, with Heat Roadmap Europe finding that district heating could provide 71% of the heat demand in urban areas across 14 European countries [106]. Currently, there are around 14,000 heat networks across the UK supplying about 2% of heat to homes, businesses, and industry [8], although only 7% of heat from heat networks currently comes from low-carbon sources [97].…”

Section: Electrificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat Decarbonisation Modelling Approaches in the UK: An Energy System Architecture Perspective

et al. 2020

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Energy models have been widely applied to the analysis of energy system decarbonisation to assess the options and costs of a transition to a low carbon supply. However, questions persist as to whether they are able to effectively represent and assess heat decarbonisation pathways for the buildings sector. A range of limitations have been identified, including a poor spatio-temporal resolution, limited representation of behaviour, and restricted representation of the full technical option set. This paper undertakes a review of existing energy models for heat decarbonisation in the UK, applying the novel perspective of energy system architecture (ESA). A set of ESA-related features are identified (including evolvability, flexibility, robustness, and feasibility), and models are reviewed against these features. The review finds that a range of models exist that have strengths across different features of ESA, suggesting that multiple modelling approaches are needed in order to adequately address the heat decarbonisation challenge. However, opportunities to improve existing models and develop new approaches also exist, and a research agenda is therefore proposed.

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“…The current special issue includes two papers focused on this research line. A study by M€ oller et al presents a quantitative method to define local heat supply strategies [11], based on arranging spatial heat demand and supply data and allocating excess heat or renewable heat sources to prospective DH systems. The analysis confirms the large potential existing for de-carbonisation of the heat sector.…”

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confidence: 99%