iv into a facility's secure area. Rather than attempting to isolate the risk-mitigation value of TWIC, taking a system approach could determine how to best mitigate security vulnerabilities and where security benefits will have the best return on investment.

Behavioral economics is based on the idea that individuals' decisions are affected by systematic and predictable cognitive biases and that these same biases can be leveraged to change behavior and improve decision-making. Insights from behavioral economics have been used to encourage a range of desired behaviors but have rarely been used in disaster preparedness and response, though traditional efforts by public health practitioners have failed to increase adoption of key preparedness behaviors. In this work, we aim to show how some of the key concepts in the behavioral economics literature are applicable to behaviors related to disaster preparedness and response, and we present ideas for behavioral economics-based interventions that we vetted with public health officials. Two of the best-received interventions were applications of social norms approaches, which leverage social influence bias, and commitment devices, which leverage present bias and loss aversion. Although the current evidence base for the applications of concepts from behavioral economics in disaster preparedness and response is weak, behavioral economics has achieved positive results in similar decision-making contexts. The low cost and potentially high impact of behavioral economics-based interventions warrant further investigation and testing. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;page 1 of 7).

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No abstract

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iii Preface This report documents the outcome of a research project entitled "Department of Homeland Security [DHS] Evergreen Arctic Priorities," which focused on identifying priority potential Arctic capability gaps with respect to U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) operations in the region in 2017, and whether and how these gaps might become exacerbated by the 2030s. As the Arctic environment evolves, it is becoming increasingly important to determine how to operate in the region, given changing conditions and the potential for increasing activity that will drive demand for more-frequent U.S. government presence across a broader spectrum of roles. There are several challenges associated with operating in the Arctic, including large distances and the harsh environment, as well as limited infrastructure and available assets for communicating, observing, understanding, and maneuvering. This research provides an additional perspective on how to characterize potential gaps in order to develop clearer avenues ahead for mitigating them that cover a range of possible current and future USCG activities in the Arctic.The primary purpose of this research is to support a USCG Capability Analysis Report focused on the Arctic. This report could be considered similar to a capability analysis and may be of broad interest to the USCG, DHS, and other decisionmakers involved with Arctic policy and planning.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. iii PrefaceThe Air Force has been grappling for several years with how to survive and fight in contested, degraded, and operationally limited (CDO) environments, and one of its recent innovations has been the advancement of basing concepts that require significant resilience and mobility of combat forces. These concepts are still under development, and the need for mobility and agility places pressure on planners to reduce the military footprint and potentially take significant risks in the interest of speed.The Air Force does not currently have a comprehensive tool or methodology for integrated deployment planning that can rapidly explore trade-offs among capability (or risk), speed, and cost to achieve lean force packages for use in CDO environments. The purpose of this analysis is to describe and demonstrate a methodology and prototype tool for lean force package planning and analysis-called the Lean Strategic Tool for the Analysis of Required Transportation (Lean-START)-that does just that.Lean-START, an Excel-based spreadsheet model, determines the list of equipment and personnel required to support a user-specified operation, along with the movement characteristics of the materiel for a wide range of support areas. It acts as both a demand generator of the manpower and materiel needed at an expeditionary base to achieve initial operating capability, and also an iterative planning environment to inform course of action and concept development.