Air Force Capability Development Planning: Analytical Methods to Support Investment Decisions

Abstract

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Proposed Analytical Products for the Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability: Developing and Presenting Options for Future Force Design and Capability Development

“…But this approach came with a cost; specifically, the relatively few degrees of freedom left to the SECAF and CSAF in their decisionmaking and a focus on readiness to the exclusion of a more strategic view of concept development and force planning. The disconnection from analysis of longer-term force planning became apparent in planning choices events, where important decisions on force restructuring are made (Leftwich et al, 2019). Over the past several years, senior Air Force leaders came to grips with the seriousness of this limitation and recognized the need to improve both the quantity and quality of the Air Force's enterprise-level analysis and decisionmaking on future force design and capability development planning.…”

“…Either way, AFWIC's team will need to take what is likely to be a somewhat general directive and frame a moreprecise problem statement that will be amenable to analysis. As described in Leftwich et al, 2019, one of the most-critical steps in problem framing is to create a clear statement of objectives and a discrete set of performance metrics that capture the most-important dimensions of each objective. These objectives are informed by the threat and technology assessments described previously.…”

“…Davis, 2014, refers to flexibility, adaptability, and robustness as "FARness" properties. Measures that capture these properties would become performance metrics in the feasibility analysis of the force design options (Leftwich et al, 2019).…”

“…Examples from Prior RAND Work Martin et al, 2019;Thirtle et al, 2008;and Leftwich et al, 2019, provide examples of analyses envisioned in this section.…”

“…A8 also should play a supporting role. Ownership of this product will reside with the CDC Working Group, which was brought into the AFWIC organization at the time of AFWIC's establishment (Leftwich et al, 2019).…”