The methodology contexts of perceiving complex self-governing socio-economic systems as planetary-civilizational social systems are theoretically substantiated in the article. Awareness of the essence of modern global and planetary crisis of civilization makes it possible to make sure that the planet Earth, which on the basis of classical approaches is traditionally perceived as a financial and economic one, should be considered methodologically as a planetary civilizational social system. Outstanding thinkers of our time, scientists from many highly developed countries have unequivocally proved that its main cause is the spiritual decline of society, the decline of the holistic consciousness of the subjects of society, orientation towards the definition of one-sided logical-mental intelligence, the loss of moral values and responsibility for the creation of man, the growing distrust to public administration institutions. All this emphasizes the inconsistency of a qualified and competent search the directions and mechanisms for overcoming the planetary-civilizational crisis of society. Therefore, the primary task of planetary civilization development is the need for a radical change in worldview, which would be based on life values: protecting people’s health, education, as the acquisition of new knowledge, peaceful coexistence, the dignity of man as such, trust and harmony in relations between people and people with nature. From a scientific point of view, this cardinal change in the worldview consists in the transition from target to value rationality based on the deepening of spiritual and moral factors that should set the vector of anti-crisis environmentally friendly thinking regarding all management decisions in the field of practical actions to reform national and global economic systems.
A characteristic feature of the last century was humanity’s desire to ensure economic and technological development, which was considered the basis for achieving well-being and improving the standard of living. However, this progress was accompanied by using natural resources and environmental pollution, and the economy, environment, and social institutions functioned in isolation from each other. Global environmental problems, hunger, impoverishment of a large part of the population, moral degradation, and other challenges that the world faced at the beginning of the 21st century prompted the progressive international community and non-governmental organizations to start a new approach – the concept of sustainable development. This concept, which arose as a continuation of V. Vernadskyi’s concept of the noosphere, envisages the coordinated development of the economy, ecology, and social sphere to ensure the quality of people’s lives, the preservation of the environment, and social progress. The purpose of the article is to discuss the process of forming the sustainable development of the national economy based on inclusiveness. The words “sustainable” and “inclusive” have been combined into the term “sustainable, inclusive development”, which reflects an attempt to combine two essential aspects of development: environmental sustainability and social inclusion. It has been determined that sustainable development is defined as development that meets the current needs of people without impairing the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Accordingly, it is designed to balance economic, social, and ecological aspects of development, ensuring the preservation of natural resources and environmental protection. An assessment of Ukraine’s sustainable, inclusive development was carried out, during which it was determined that the term “sustainable inclusive development” reflects an attempt to combine two essential aspects of development: environmental sustainability and social inclusion. Such development reflects the importance of ensuring the harmonious development of society, which considers both the needs of current generations and the needs of future generations, as well as the inclusion of all members of society. The main principles of sustainable, inclusive development are defined: as non-discrimination, equal opportunities, and access to education, health care, and social services.
Building Plant named after A.M. Makarov", Ukraine FORECASTING IN THE NATIONAL ECONOMY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Метою статті є дослідження процесу прогнозування в системі управління національною економікою. Обґрунтовано, що прогнозування економічних і соціальних процесів розвитку соціально-економічних систем є важливим етапом формування стратегії держави, що є орієнтиром для розробки стратегічних планів розвитку галузей і секторів економіки, побудови міжгалузевих балансів, вироблення економічної та соціальної політики, стратегій розвитку регіонів. Досліджено, що відсутнє єдине бачення щодо прогнозу розвитку економіки України на 2023-2024 роки.
In martial law conditions, the national economy is the primary task of our government to develop ways to restore it. The restoration of the national economy in martial law conditions is possible based on the concept of inclusive development, which provides opportunities and equality for all economic participants while being accompanied by benefits for every sector of the economy and different strata of society. The process of scenario forecasting is essential in the conditions of restoration of the inclusive development of the national economy. Social and economic forecasting itself is provided using the foresight method. Accordingly, the strategic modeling of the inclusive development of the national economy based on foresight is quite relevant and requires research. The article's purpose is the strategic modeling of the inclusive development of the national economy based on foresight. The main orientations of the inclusive growth of the national economy in the system of Sustainable Development Goals have been analyzed. It has been proven that the specified criteria determine the state's level of achievement in inclusive development by those generally accepted in EU member states and other countries with developed economies. Furthermore, it was determined that the analyzed criteria could be supplemented or adjusted based on the country's national characteristics and economic, social, and institutional potential in the post-war period. It is substantiated that the economy's growth is the prerequisite for achieving the goals of inclusive development. At the same time, it has been proven that the economic growth model will contribute to inclusive development. However, it requires a significant revision of the economic model and, in some areas, complete reengineering. The tentative concept of strategic modeling of inclusive development of the national economy is substantiated. It was determined that this concept is based on the principle of movement from the future to the present and is focused on finding the most optimal ways to overcome the gaps between the indicative structural and value model of the inclusive development of the national economy and its current state through the formation of appropriate economic, legal, institutional and organizational conditions and the establishment balance between them based on the possibilities and limitations that will arise under the influence of various changes in the modeling background. Keywords: modeling, inclusive development, national economy, foresight, strategic goals.
Метою статті є здійснення процесу проектування моделі інклюзивного розвитку національної економіки за методом форсайту. Визначено, що міжнародний досвід свідчить про ефективність застосування форсайт-технологій у процесі формування та прийняття політико-економічних та соціально-політичних рішень, при визначенні стратегічних альтернатив розвитку національних економік або окремих сфер із урахуванням стратегічних невизначеностей. Популярність даного методичного підходу зростає в умовах невизначеності глобальних ринків, різкого росту НТП, активних процесів цифровізації. Доведено, що відповідно до концепції форсайту, формування моделі інклюзивного розвитку національної економіки формує кумулятивний ефект, що пояснюється ефектом наслідування, яке сприяє колективному навчанню, створенню та поширенню відповідних шаблонів й сприяє еволюції економічних, соціальних та культурних явищ у певному тандемі, вибудовуючи відповідні зв'язки. Обгрунтовано, що технології форсайту, як і інші технології прогнозування, особливо багатофакторних та складних систем не дають 100% результату, проте дозволяють краще підготуватися до різних варіантів змін. Визначено, що проектування і розвиток моделі здійснюється у три етапи: формування передмоделі, моделювання та створення моделі. Доведено, що основними чинниками ефективності проведення форсайту є чітке визначення мети та цілей моделі стратегічного розвитку, що виступають орієнтирами для всіх подальших етапів; якісний склад учасників, що генерують ідеї та рішення; рівень інформаційного забезпечення; адекватність інструментів обгрунтування прогнозів. Охарактеризовано основні методи форсайту, що використовуються для прогнозування і моделювання майбутнього. Визначено, що до них відносяться: прогнозування, симулятори військових ігор, дорожні карти, ретроспективний аналіз, оцінка слабких сигналів та підставних карт, планування сценаріїв. Доведено, що застосування інструментів форсайту на сьогодні є найбільш актуальним при формуванні стратегічної моделі інклюзивного розвитку національної економіки в умовах глобальної турбулентності та невизначеності. The article aims to implement the process of designing a model of inclusive development of the national economy using the foresight method. It was determined that international experience testifies to the effectiveness of applying foresight technologies in forming and adopting political-economic and socio-political decisions when determining strategic alternatives for the development of national economies or individual spheres, taking into account strategic uncertainties. The popularity of this methodical approach is growing in the conditions of uncertainty of global markets, the sharp growth of NTP, and active digitalization processes. It is proven that, according to the concept of foresight, the formation of a model of inclusive development of the national economy creates a cumulative effect, which is explained by the effect of imitation, which contributes to collective learning, the creation, and dissemination of appropriate templates and promotes t...
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