Strategic modeling of the inclusive development of the national economy based on foresight

Abstract

In martial law conditions, the national economy is the primary task of our government to develop ways to restore it. The restoration of the national economy in martial law conditions is possible based on the concept of inclusive development, which provides opportunities and equality for all economic participants while being accompanied by benefits for every sector of the economy and different strata of society. The process of scenario forecasting is essential in the conditions of restoration of the inclusive development of the national economy. Social and economic forecasting itself is provided using the foresight method. Accordingly, the strategic modeling of the inclusive development of the national economy based on foresight is quite relevant and requires research. The article's purpose is the strategic modeling of the inclusive development of the national economy based on foresight. The main orientations of the inclusive growth of the national economy in the system of Sustainable Development Goals have been analyzed. It has been proven that the specified criteria determine the state's level of achievement in inclusive development by those generally accepted in EU member states and other countries with developed economies. Furthermore, it was determined that the analyzed criteria could be supplemented or adjusted based on the country's national characteristics and economic, social, and institutional potential in the post-war period. It is substantiated that the economy's growth is the prerequisite for achieving the goals of inclusive development. At the same time, it has been proven that the economic growth model will contribute to inclusive development. However, it requires a significant revision of the economic model and, in some areas, complete reengineering. The tentative concept of strategic modeling of inclusive development of the national economy is substantiated. It was determined that this concept is based on the principle of movement from the future to the present and is focused on finding the most optimal ways to overcome the gaps between the indicative structural and value model of the inclusive development of the national economy and its current state through the formation of appropriate economic, legal, institutional and organizational conditions and the establishment balance between them based on the possibilities and limitations that will arise under the influence of various changes in the modeling background. Keywords: modeling, inclusive development, national economy, foresight, strategic goals.