Available online xxxx JEL classification: H23 Q40 Q54 C61 C68 O57In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increase in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. An assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.
a b s t r a c t Available online xxxx JEL classification: H23 C88 Q40 Q54 C61 C63 C68 O57 Keywords: Climate policy Low-carbon energy scenarios Mitigation alternatives BrazilThis paper assesses the effects of market-based mechanisms and carbon emission restrictions on the Brazilian energy system by comparing the results of six different energy-economic or integrated assessment models under different scenarios for carbon taxes and abatement targets up to 2050. Results show an increase over time in emissions in the baseline scenarios due, largely, to higher penetration of natural gas and coal. Climate policy scenarios, however, indicate that such a pathway can be avoided. While taxes up to 32 US$/tCO 2 e do not significantly reduce emissions, higher taxes (from 50 US$/tCO 2 e in 2020 to 162US$/tCO 2 e in 2050) induce average emission reductions around 60% when compared to the baseline. Emission constraint scenarios yield even lower reductions in most models. Emission reductions are mostly due to lower energy consumption, increased penetration of renewable energy (especially biomass and wind) and of carbon capture and storage technologies for fossil and/or biomass fuels. This paper also provides a discussion of specific issues related to mitigation alternatives in Brazil. The range of mitigation options resulting from the model runs generally falls within the limits found for specific energy sources in the country, although infrastructure investments and technology improvements are needed for the projected mitigation scenarios to achieve actual feasibility.
Climate change is likely to affect water availability and therefore hydropower generation in many regions of the world. In drying regions, hydropower generation may be impaired, creating a need for new power investments that would otherwise have been unnecessary. In this study we apply two partial equilibrium models (GCAM and TIAM-ECN) and two general equilibrium models (MEG4C and Phoenix) to identify possible pathways of power sector adaptation for Colombia under climate change. We adopt two GCM projections that deteriorate hydropower generation over the next three decades, and simulate each for two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). Relative to Colombia's projected power demand growth over the coming decades, losses in hydropower generation are marginal. Nonetheless, climate-driven losses in hydropower must be compensated by alternative technologies´expansion, which vary significantly across models. When climate policy is implemented (RCP4.5), three distinct expansion pathways emerge: increased solar and wind energy (TIAM-ECN); significant power demand reductions (Phoenix and MEG4C); and increased fossil resources with carbon dioxide capture and storage (GCAM). We show the need to explore the tradeoffs/synergies among alternative expansion pathways and their potential impacts on other sectors (e.g. water and land), and for effective policies to incentivize their adoption in Colombia.
This paper performs a multi-model comparison to assess strategies for adaptation to climate change impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways. The approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of sixteen General Circulation Models indicate that a global high emissions trajectory scenario would likely yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than a mitigation scenario. Adaptation modeling suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impacts, meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation. When analyzing investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead to a lower total investment level.
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