Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways

Abstract

Climate change is likely to affect water availability and therefore hydropower generation in many regions of the world. In drying regions, hydropower generation may be impaired, creating a need for new power investments that would otherwise have been unnecessary. In this study we apply two partial equilibrium models (GCAM and TIAM-ECN) and two general equilibrium models (MEG4C and Phoenix) to identify possible pathways of power sector adaptation for Colombia under climate change. We adopt two GCM projections that deteriorate hydropower generation over the next three decades, and simulate each for two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). Relative to Colombia's projected power demand growth over the coming decades, losses in hydropower generation are marginal. Nonetheless, climate-driven losses in hydropower must be compensated by alternative technologies´expansion, which vary significantly across models. When climate policy is implemented (RCP4.5), three distinct expansion pathways emerge: increased solar and wind energy (TIAM-ECN); significant power demand reductions (Phoenix and MEG4C); and increased fossil resources with carbon dioxide capture and storage (GCAM). We show the need to explore the tradeoffs/synergies among alternative expansion pathways and their potential impacts on other sectors (e.g. water and land), and for effective policies to incentivize their adoption in Colombia.

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

“…However, hydropower—the renewable that currently contributes the most to the global electricity supply 4 —has received considerably larger attention from the IAM literature and climate-impact studies in general (see the literature referenced in Yalew et al 14 , Solaun and Cerdá 15 , Cronin et al 16 , and Emodi et al 17 ). IAM-based studies on climate impacts on hydropower (some of them conducted in the context of decarbonization scenarios as mentioned earlier) have been useful in exploring climate change implications for electricity production and capital investments 18 – 24 . Another group of IAM-based studies has addressed impacts on the agriculture sector (which affect biomass potential) by incorporating biophysical crop yield changes 25 – 28 .…”

“…The first variation, named No-climate impacts, assumes no climate impacts on renewable resources, serving as a reference against which to compare the other scenarios. The Hydropower scenarios assume climate impacts on hydropower only, allowing a comparison with the approach of prior studies that have investigated electricity-sector implications due to climate impacts on hydropower 18 – 24 . The Combined impacts scenarios assume climate impacts on all renewable resources.…”

Reservoir Scheduling Using a Multi-Objective Cuckoo Search Algorithm under Climate Change in Jinsha River, China

“…For example, Queiroz et al introduced spatiotemporal information of future climate change into the operation plan of Brazil's hydropower system to evaluate its impact on the revenue of hydropower stations [29]. By applying GCM projections, the trend of hydropower demand over the next 30 years can be obtained [30]. Other objectives can also be estimated through this method.…”

Technological and Operational Aspects That Limit Small Wind Turbines Performance

“…It is well known that hydropower dominance is the result of low energy costs and high hydro potential in countries where this resource is widely available. Nevertheless, the construction of large dams carries a significant environmental footprint because reservoirs modify the river's ecosystem [11]. Many in-service water resources and hydropower plants are in the aging stage, being sedimentation a significant issue in the watershed of reservoirs around the world [12], following the implementation of strategies for its management [13].…”