Within Latin America, about 319 volcanoes have been active in the Holocene, but 202 of these volcanoes have no seismic, deformation or gas monitoring. Following the 2012 Santorini Report on satellite Earth Observation and Geohazards, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) developed a 4-year pilot project (2013-2017) to demonstrate how satellite observations can be used to monitor large numbers of volcanoes cost-effectively, particularly in areas with scarce instrumentation and/or difficult access. The pilot aims to improve disaster risk management (DRM) by working directly with the volcano observatories that are governmentally responsible for volcano monitoring as well as with the international space agencies (ESA, CSA, ASI, DLR, JAXA, NASA, CNES). The goal is to make sure that the most useful data are collected at each volcano following the guidelines of the Santorini report that observation frequency is related to volcano activity, and to communicate the results to the local institutions in a timely fashion. Here we highlight how coordinated multi-satellite observations have been used by volcano observatories to monitor volcanoes and respond to crises. Our primary tool is measurements of ground deformation made by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), which have been used in conjunction with other observations to determine the alert level at these volcanoes, served as an independent check on ground sensors, guided the deployment of ground instruments, and aided situational awareness. During this time period, we find 26 volcanoes deforming, including 18 of the 28 volcanoes that erupted-those eruptions without deformation were less than 2 on the VEI scale. Another 7 volcanoes were restless and the volcano observatories requested satellite observations, but no deformation was detected. We describe the lessons learned about the data products and information that are most needed by the volcano observatories in the different countries using information collected by questionnaires. We propose a practical strategy for regional to global satellite volcano monitoring for use by volcano observatories in Latin America and elsewhere to realize the vision of the Santorini report.
Many of Earth's volcanoes experience well‐defined states of “quiescence” and “unrest,” with unrest occasionally culminating in eruption. Some volcanoes, however, experience an unusually protracted (i.e., decades‐long) period of noneruptive unrest and are thus categorized as “persistently restless volcanoes” (PRVs). The processes that drive persistently restless volcanism are poorly understood, as our knowledge of PRVs is currently based on a small number of case studies. Here we examine multidisciplinary observations of the 2015 eruptive episode at Telica Volcano, Nicaragua, in the context of its long‐term behavior. We suggest that the latter phases of the 2015 eruption were ultimately driven by destabilization of its shallow magma reservoir. Based on previous geodetic‐seismic studies of Telica (Geirsson et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.11.009; Rodgers et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.08.010 and 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2014.11.012) and on multiparameter observations at Telica over a 7‐year period, we propose that three distinct states of unrest occur at Telica over decadal timescales: a stable open state involving steady conduit convection and two distinct “unstable” states that may lead to eruptions. In the “weak sealing” state, phreatic explosions result from steady conduit convection underlying a weak seal. In the “destabilized” state, destabilization of the top of the convecting magma in the conduit leads to rapid accumulation of high pressures leading to strong/impulsive phreatomagmatic explosions. Our observations and interpretations suggest that continuous seismic, ground‐based deformation, gas emission, and thermal monitoring and interpretation of these data within a paradigm of sustained conduit convection modulated by episodes of sealing and destabilization of shallow magma reservoirs may allow robust forecasting of eruption potential, energy, and duration at Telica and similar PRVs worldwide.
Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) provides subcentimetric measurements of surface displacements, which are key for characterizing and monitoring magmatic processes in volcanic regions. The abundant measurements of surface displacements in multitemporal InSAR data routinely acquired by SAR satellites can facilitate near real-time volcano monitoring on a global basis. However, the presence of atmospheric signals in interferograms complicates the interpretation of those InSAR measurements, which can even lead to a misinterpretation of InSAR signals and volcanic unrest. Given the vast quantities of SAR data available, an automatic InSAR data processing and denoising approach is required to separate volcanic signals that are cause of concern from atmospheric signals and noise. In this study, we employ a deep learning strategy that directly removes atmospheric and other noise signals from time-consecutive unwrapped surface displacements obtained through an InSAR time series approach using an end-to-end convolutional neural network (CNN) with an encoder-decoder architecture, modified U-net. The CNN is trained with simulated synthetic unwrapped surface displacement maps and is then applied to real InSAR data. Our proposed architecture is capable of detecting dynamic spatio-temporal patterns of volcanic surface displacements. We find that an ensemble-average strategy is recommended to stabilize detected results for varying deformation rates and signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). A case study is also presented where this method is applied to InSAR data covering Masaya volcano, Nicaragua and the results are validated using continuous GPS data. The results confirm that our network can indeed efficiently suppress atmospheric and other noise to reveal the noise-free surface deformation.
Ascending and descending Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data sets from various satellites (CSK, RSAT‐2, ALOS‐2, and Sentinel‐1) show a maximum of ∼8 cm ground inflation in Masaya caldera over a 10 month period (6 November 2015 to 1 September 2016). The center of inflation is located in the NW part of the caldera, north of the active Santiago vent which has hosted a new lava lake since 11 December 2015. Simultaneous inversions of those Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data sets using a neighbourhood algorithm demonstrate that a spherical magma reservoir explains the geodetic data, with a horizontal location ∼3 km north of the active Santiago vent and a depth‐to‐center ∼3 km. The associated modeled volume increase (∼0.0042 km3) is lower than the “excess” magma volume inferred from gas measurements from November 2015 to February 2016. The magma reservoir offset from the current center of eruptive activity may be the result of preexisting caldera structures.
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