Many of Earth's volcanoes experience well‐defined states of “quiescence” and “unrest,” with unrest occasionally culminating in eruption. Some volcanoes, however, experience an unusually protracted (i.e., decades‐long) period of noneruptive unrest and are thus categorized as “persistently restless volcanoes” (PRVs). The processes that drive persistently restless volcanism are poorly understood, as our knowledge of PRVs is currently based on a small number of case studies. Here we examine multidisciplinary observations of the 2015 eruptive episode at Telica Volcano, Nicaragua, in the context of its long‐term behavior. We suggest that the latter phases of the 2015 eruption were ultimately driven by destabilization of its shallow magma reservoir. Based on previous geodetic‐seismic studies of Telica (Geirsson et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.11.009; Rodgers et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.08.010 and 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2014.11.012) and on multiparameter observations at Telica over a 7‐year period, we propose that three distinct states of unrest occur at Telica over decadal timescales: a stable open state involving steady conduit convection and two distinct “unstable” states that may lead to eruptions. In the “weak sealing” state, phreatic explosions result from steady conduit convection underlying a weak seal. In the “destabilized” state, destabilization of the top of the convecting magma in the conduit leads to rapid accumulation of high pressures leading to strong/impulsive phreatomagmatic explosions. Our observations and interpretations suggest that continuous seismic, ground‐based deformation, gas emission, and thermal monitoring and interpretation of these data within a paradigm of sustained conduit convection modulated by episodes of sealing and destabilization of shallow magma reservoirs may allow robust forecasting of eruption potential, energy, and duration at Telica and similar PRVs worldwide.
Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) studies of ground displacement are often plagued by tropospheric artifacts, which are phase delays resulting from spatiotemporal variations in the refractivity of air within the troposphere. In this study, we focus on COSMO-SkyMed (X-band) InSAR products obtained over two different types of volcanoes in Nicaragua: the Telica stratovolcano and the Masaya caldera. We examine the applicability of an empirical linear correction method and three Global Weather Models (GWMs) with different spatial and temporal resolutions for removing the tropospheric phase component. We linearly invert the tropospheric-corrected interferograms using the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) time-series technique to produce time-series of ground displacement. Statistical assessments were performed on the corrected interferograms to examine the significance of the applied corrections on the individual interferograms and time-series results. We find that the applicability of the correction methods is highly case-dependent and that in general, the temporal resolution of GWMs influences their ability to capture turbulent tropospheric phase delays. At the two target volcanoes, our study shows that none of the GWMs are able to accurately capture the tropospheric phase delays. Our study provides a guide for researchers using InSAR data in tropical regions who wish to use tropospheric model corrections to carefully assess the applicability of the different types of tropospheric correction methods.Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 782 2 of 30 which include the true displacement of the ground (∆φ de f ), differences in the orbital geometry of the satellite (∆φ orbit ), contributions of the topography (∆φ topo ), phase delay contributions from the ionosphere and troposphere (∆φ atm ), and other noise contributions such as instrument noise and changes in scattering properties of the ground (∆φ noise ). Topographic contributions can be accounted for by using digital elevation models [13] and orbital geometry contributions can be removed using precise satellite orbits (also known as flattening). With the improvement in satellite technology, thermally-correlated noise contributions from the instruments onboard the satellites can be assessed [14,15]. Poor coherence (low signal-to-noise ratio) pixels due to changes in the scattering properties of the ground can be masked from the ground displacement field.Atmospheric contributions, however, are more difficult to account for as they often involve phase delay contributions from both the ionosphere (60-1000 km) and troposphere (0-10 km), which can bias true ground displacement measurements [12,16]. Ionization of neutral atoms and molecules in the ionosphere from high energy solar radiation results in a mix of neutral gas molecules, free ions and electrons [17]. This influences the propagation of microwave radiation through the ionospheric layer, causing phase shifts such as phase advances and group delays, which translate as azimuth shifts and defocusing between SAR acquisitio...
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