The role of imports of intermediate inputs as one of the elements of a sound growth strategy is a contentious issue. For some authors, see, e.g., Amiti and Konings (2007), and Goldberg et al. (2010), the access to imported intermediate goods allows for quality improvement in manufacturing products and broader participation of a country in international trade. Their viewpoint rests on the arguments that the increased availability of imported inputs may facilitate product diversification and trigger pro-competition effects, inducing cost reductions and quality improvements in the final product. But for other authors such as Blecker and Ibarra (2013), Moreno-Brid (1999, 2002) and Pacheco-López and Thirlwall (2004) the reliance on a strategy based on foreign content of export may be harmful to growth. While for Moreno-Brid (1999, 2002) and Pacheco-López
Recent supermultiplier models view autonomous demand as the driver of long‐run growth and as the key stabilizer of Harrodian instability. Attempts to endogenize autonomous demand effectively undermine the existence of a supermultiplier, however, and models with ‘endogenous autonomous demand’ show strong similarities with an earlier literature on feedback effects from the labor markets to aggregate demand. Government consumption could in principle be a source of exogenous autonomous demand in the long run. But an active fiscal policy guided by principles of functional finance can produce more powerful stabilization, avoid overheating and excessive utilization rates, and secure faster adjustments of the growth rate toward its target level.
There is a growing empirical literature that seeks to determine country growth and demand. One possible shortcoming of those studies is their sensitivity to the estimation strategy, which is linked to the time horizon. A profit-led regime has been found to be the most likely outcome when adopting an aggregative approach, while a wage-led regime is the most likely outcome when utilizing a structural estimation. Another potential weakness is that the empirical approaches adopted are mostly linear. To overcome these criticisms, we adopt wavelet analysis, which allows the decomposition of a time series into short- and long-term components, thereby enabling investigation of whether the growth regime switches over time. This paper tests an extended version of the Goodwin model for the US economy using data from 1967 to 2016. The results show that both the growth and demand regimes are sensitive to time and are profit-led in the short term and wage-led in the long term, thereby confirming Blecker's (2016) insight.
ABSTRACT This paper aims to present the recent debate about Sraffian Supermultiplier Model (SSM), that gained notoriety in the academic environment after the controversy between Peter Skott (2016) and Marc Lavoie (2016, 2017) on the specification of the investment function of the Neo-Kaleckian models of income growth and distribution. Lavoie used the SSM model as an attempt to rescue the Neo-Kaleckians models of the devastating criticism made by Peter Skott (2010) regarding the specification of the investment function. In this context, we will not only argue that this rescue operation was not successful, but we will also question the capacity of SSM models to serve as an “alternative closure” for heterodox models of income growth and distribution, due to three fundamental shortcomings of the SSM approach, which are: (i) the hypothesis that the normal degree of utilization of the productive capacity is an exogenous variable, (ii) that investment in capacity expansion is totally endogenous; and (iii) the applicability of this approach out of a closed economy framework. We will also argue that the Kaldorian models of growth, which are one of the theoretical foundations of the so-called Developmentalist Macroeconomics, and stock-flow consistent models (SFC) seem to be much more promising alternatives for the development of heterodox theories of growth and income distribution.
RESUMO: Este artigo tem por objetivo desenvolver um modelo multissetorial e multilateral de crescimento restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos. Para tanto, utiliza-se como base os modelos propostos por Araujo e Lima (2007) e Nell (2003). Além disso, o artigo apresenta algumas simulações computacionais a fim de ilustrar como a mudança estrutural no sentido de Pasinetti-Kaldor (1993) afeta o crescimento econômico de longo prazo. Essa contribuição torna-se relevante por tornar viável a identificação de quais os setores e parceiros comerciais que mais contribuem para o crescimento de longo prazo da economia doméstica, bem como propor políticas econômicas e industriais que melhorem as relações comerciais e a competitividade da economia. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Mudança estrutural; crescimento restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos; parceiros comerciais.ABSTRACT: This study aims to develop a multi-sector and multilateral model of balance-ofpayments constrained growth. As a starting point, we adopted the models proposed by Araujo and Lima (2007) and Nell (2003). The paper also presents computer simulations to test how structural changes in the Pasinetti-Kaldor sense affect long-term economic growth. This approach is relevant insofar as it enables the identification of sectors and trading partBrazilian Journal of Political Economy, vol 37, nº 4 (149), pp 894-915, October-December/2017 ners that contribute the most to long-term growth, as well as proposing economic and industrial policies that improve trade relations and economic competitiveness.
Multissetorial, incluindo os fluxos de capitais setoriais e suas implicações para a nova estratégia de crescimento da economia brasileira, que visa estimular as exportações por meio da diversificação dos produtos, da agregação de valor e do aumento da intensidade tecnológi-ca das exportações brasileiras. Para tanto, desenvolve-se um modelo multissetorial com fluxos de capitais setoriais e, na sequência, realizam-se algumas simulações computacionais considerando os principais setores e parceiros econômicos do país (China, Estados Unidos e Bloco Europeu). os resultados sugerem que a melhor estratégia seria estimular os setores específicos, ou seja, ampliar a participação dos setores nos quais o país possua maior vantagem comparativa em relação a cada um dos seus parceiros comerciais (Manufaturados -EUA, Semimanufaturados -Europa, Básicos -China). Não obstante o resultado obtido na simulação, nos moldes do modelo proposto por Hausmann et al. (2004), pode gerar a aceleração do crescimento econômico. Assim, o Plano Nacional de Exportações (2015Exportações ( -2018 deve dar preferência à ampliação de incentivos a setores que apresentem elevadas razões das elasticidades no sentido de Thirlwall.
Em 2019, o brasil completou 20 anos do regime de câmbio flutuante que foi caracterizado por períodos de alta e baixa volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. Este artigo tem como objetivo analisar os efeitos desta volatilidade da taxa de câmbio sobre os principais canais de demanda agregada, o consumo e a formação bruta de capital fixo. As estimações foram feitas entre o 1° tri de 1999 e o 2° tri de 2018 e para o subperíodo pós-crise de 2008 (1° tri de 2008 e 2° tri de 2018). As estimações obtidas por MQO e GMM mostram que a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio afeta negativamente os investimentos, mas não o consumo. Mostram também que tais efeitos negativos foram mais intensos a partir da crise de 2008 quando comparado com todo o período de regime de câmbio flutuante.
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