This article aims to identify the level of similarity between dengue and climatic, sociodemographic and sanitation variables in Brazilian Northeast capitals between 2001 and 2012, by cluster analysis, an explanatory technique used on multivariate data to verify the interrelationship between groups formed by the similar distances among its components. The results, validated by Spearman, showed high correlation (p-value ≤ 0.0001) of dengue with: female subjects between 10-19 years old and over 79 years old; the annual total of urban public waste collected by all types of agents, especially private agents; and the total extent of area swept by public agents, suggesting that a higher volume of residues would lead to higher occurrence of mosquito breeding sites transmitting the disease. There was also some correlation with the indexes of water and sewage treatment, suggesting that it is related to the maintenance of the mosquito-borne life cycle due to the water availability.

In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.

Recent analysis indicates that the numbers of dengue cases may be as high as 400 million/year in the world. According to the Ministry of Brazilian Health, in 2015, there were 1,621,797 probable cases of dengue in the country including all classifications except discarded, the highest number recorded in the historical series since 1990. Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission, especially using generalized models. In this study, Generalized Additive Models (GAM) was used associated to visreg package to understand the effect of climatic variables on capitals of Northeast Brazilian, from 2001 to 2012. From 12 climatic variables, it was verified that the relative humidity was the one that obtained the highest correlation to dengue. Afterwards, GAM associated with visreg was applied to understand the effects between them. Relative humidity explains the dengue incidence at an adjusted rate of 78.0% (in São Luis-MA) and 82.3% (in Teresina-PI) delayed in, respectively, −1 and −2 months.

Resumo Este artigo investiga relações entre a incidência de câncer de colo de útero (ICC) e os componentes e indicadores de qualidade da água nos municípios do Mato Grosso do Sul, entre 2014 e 2017, por correlação estatística (Determinante de Pearson) e espacial (agrupamentos por k-médias). Houve maior resposta estatística de ICC em relação à tarifa média dos serviços de abastecimento praticado (-36,28%) e de água (-34,15%); à quantidade de suas interrupções sistemáticas (28,3%) e paralizações (22,28%); ao consumo médio per capita de água (20,74%) e à quantidade de serviços executados (-17,98%), todas as respostas sob p-valor ≤ 0,001. Em Costa Rica, cidade sob maior ICC média, os agrupamentos espaciais identificaram maior efeito daquelas interrupções (z-valor = 8,741) e das paralizações (z = 7,6097); enquanto em Rochedo, também sob alta ICC, houve maior efeito à incidência de análises com resultados fora do padrão para coliformes totais (z = 8,6803) e turbidez (z = 5,7427), sob correlação estatística de 12,05% (p-valor = 0,032) e 15,18% (p-valor = 0,007), respectivamente. Dados do SISAGUA revelaram a presença de coliformes e de altos níveis de turbidez, por exemplo, em Antônio João e Tacuru, cidades sob altas ICC médias. Recomenda-se maiores investigações sobre as relações aqui apresentadas entre ICC e água.

Abstratct This article investigates relationships between the incidence of cervical cancer (CCI) and the water components and quality indicators, in the municipalities of Mato Grosso do Sul, between 2014 and 2017, by statistical (Pearson’s Determinant) and spatial (k-means Clustering) correlation. There was a greater statistical response of CCI in relation to the average tariff of the practiced supply (−36.28%) and water (−34.15%) services; the number of their systematic interruptions (28.3%) and outages (22.28%); the average per capita consumption of water (20.74%); and the number of services performed (−17.98%), all answers under p-value ≤ 0.001. In Costa Rica, city with the highest average CCI, the spatial clustering identified a greater effect of those interruptions (z-value = 8.741) and outages (z = 7.6097); whereas, in Rochedo, also under high CCI, the analyses showed greater effect with non-standard results for total coliforms (z = 8.6803) and turbidity (z = 5.7427), under a statistical correlation of 12.05% (p-value = 0.032) and 15.18% (p-value = 0.007), respectively. Data from SISAGUA revealed the presence of coliforms and high levels of turbidity, for example, in Antônio João and Tacuru, cities with high average ICC. We recommend further investigation into the relationships presented here between CCI and water.

Bacharel e licenciado em Psicologia pela UFMG, Especialização em Percepção e Planejamento Urbano. Mestre em Gestão e Auditoria Ambiental, especialização em educação ambiental. Consultor em percepção e educação ambiental. Sócio diretor da Alternativa Educação e Manejo Ambiental.

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