Dynamic Modelling of Dengue Epidemics in Function of Available Enthalpy and Rainfall

Abstract

In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.

Serological and Molecular Survey for Dengue Virus Infection in Suspected Febrile Patients in Selected Local Government Areas in Adamawa State, Nigeria

“…There are four known serotypes in circulation that share antigenic relatedness (DENV1-DENV4), each of which is further divided into specific genotypes. Infection with any one of the serotypes provides a lifelong immunity against the same serotype and partial immunity against the other serotypes [6,7]. Dengue has been classified as dengue with or without warning signs/symptoms and severe dengue [8].…”

Serological and Molecular Survey for Dengue Virus Infection in Febrile Suspected Patients in Selected Local Government Areas in Adamawa State, Nigeria

“…7 presents data on dengue and malaria co-infection in the recruited subjects.. Out of the 124 recruited patients tested, 18 (14.5%) were found to be co-infected with dengue and malaria.Figure 1.4 presents participants who had some form of open water around their dwelling place in Jimeta, Yola. Out of the 124 participants, 55 (44.4%) had some form of open water in and around their surroundings and of 24 (19.4%) of the patients were positive for dengue IgM.Table1.8 presents dengue virus antibody (IgM) detection assay using ELISA in Numan.…”