Purpose
The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities.
Design/methodology/approach
To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders.
Findings
Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government.
Originality/value
As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.
This article explores the concept of the “future” through the lens of human geography. We examine how space may influence the way we perceive the future and how actors connected to this space will determine or undermine the kind of future to be unfolded. Particularly, we are interested in who influences the ideas of the future that explains how futures could be imagined and constructed. Already, the ideas of the future have utilized concepts of sustainability and climate change to demonstrate how futures may unfold. However, these envisioned futures, which mostly originate from a narrow perspective within a single space–time dimension, can be misleading. The ideas of the future can be challenged because space–time evolution alters the social structure of actors connected to space in multiple dimensions. As space–time evolves, new actors will be introduced, and actors who have been traditionally power‐less may emerge to contest and negotiate access to power to provide alternative ideas of the future. Understanding how power is negotiated and contested by these actors in the future is critical to understanding who has the future power.
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