Systematically linking qualitative elements of scenarios across levels, scales, and sectors

Schweizer, Vanessa; Kurniawan, Jude Herijadi

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.014

Cited by 47 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…While the number of socioeconomic and environmental scenarios is increasing (Hunt et al 2012, Aerts et al 2013, most of them are global or regional and not city-specific. Second, the scenario matching that we performed was purely qualitative and did not rely on structured methods such as pairwise comparisons or cross-impact balances (Schweizer and Kurniawan 2016). Third, we were not able to quantify the extended SSPs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts

Lino¹,

Rohat²,

Kirshen³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Climate change will impact cities' infrastructure and urban dwellers, who often show differentiated capacity to cope with climate-related hazards. An emerging research field, using the latest global socioeconomic and climate scenarios -namely the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration (RCPs) -is exploring how different socioeconomic pathways will influence future society's ability to cope with climate change impacts. While the SSPs have been extensively used at the global scale, their use at the local and urban scale has remained rare, as they first need to be contextualized and extended for the particular place of interest. In this study, we present and apply a method to develop multi-scale extended SSPs at the city and neighborhood scale. Using Boston, Massachusetts, as a case study, we combined scenario matching, experts' elicitation, and participatory processes to contextualize and make the global SSPs relevant at the urban scale. We subsequently employed the extended SSPs to explore future neighborhood-level vulnerability to extreme heat under multiple plausible socioeconomic trajectories, highlighting the usefulness of extended SSPs in informing future vulnerability assessments. The large differences in outcomes hint at the enormous potential of risk reduction that social and urban planning policies could trigger in the next decades.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts

Lino¹,

Rohat²,

Kirshen³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…The analysis of future emissions under alternative scenarios and at multiple scales is increasingly recognized as an urgent priority (Schweizer and Kurniawan, 2016;Guivarch et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Python toolkit for visualizing greenhouse gas emissions at sub-county scales

Wohlstadter

Shoaib

Posey

et al. 2016

Environmental Modelling & Software

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“…Although the method to link between narratives and quantified scenarios is similar to that used in global scenario exercises (O'Neill et al, 2016;O'Neill et al, 2017), this link is not fully transparent (Pedde et al, 2018c). A systematic approach to link qualitative elements in multi-scale scenarios exist to develop consistent scenario (Schweizer and Kurniawan, 2016). In this study, however, we treated the question of multi-scale scenario consistency as normative and fully stakeholder-driven.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Firstly, by taking a step back to analyse the original meanings of 'equivalence', 'consistency' and 'coherence' across scales, as originally defined in Zurek & Henrichs (2007) and Biggs et al (2007), in and Chapter 4. Secondly, by systematically structurally defining key qualitative elements to be 'consistent' across scales (Schweizer & Kurniawan, 2016). Thirdly, by explicitly linking bottom-up and top-down approaches (e.g.…”

Section: Context Of the Methodology 11mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the number of multi-scale scenarios is increasing with the aim to better understand the interactions of processes at different levels and scales (van Ruijven et al, 2014). Although different degrees of linkages are possible, depending on their desired outcome and purpose (Biggs et al, 2007, Zurek andHenrichs, 2007), the multi-scale scenarios are being operationalised as 'nested scenarios' (Absar & Preston, 2015) with Schweizer & Kurniawan (2016) defining them as:…”

Section: Scenarios Across Scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Advancing the development and use of climate-change scenarios : A multi-scale analysis to explore socio-economic European futures

Pedde¹

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I would like to express my gratitude to my 'official' supervision-team, that is my promotor and supervisor. Thanks to my promotor, Prof. Dr Rik Leemans, for his responsibility, commitment and availability. Thanks also for detailed comments on hyphenation rules and much, much more! Rik, your guidance helped me throughout the thesis, until the very end! Thanks to my supervisor, Dr Kasper Kok. To those around me, it is common knowledge that I had a wonderful PhD experience, and I owe this largely to Kasper. Kasper, you respected me as your peer, granting all freedom I needed, yet advising and sharing your knowledge and network. You always supported me. I could not imagine a better supervision-team. Kasper, first thing after our first brainstorm, you 'threw me' in the midst of an IMPRESSIONS project modellers meeting, in September 2014, in Pisa. I didn't know anyone then, except for some names in my EndNote library. But since then, all IMPRESSIONISTs have become a real part of my research and, some, of my life. Thanks to all of IMPRESSIONS for the lively discussions, research input and questions, novel methodologies, life-changing lessons, crazy nights out, even-crazier travels and runs etc. As I don't have space for all unfortunately, I'll just mention some of you, knowing that my thanks are sincerely directed to all. I'd like to mention those who I consider my 'unofficial advisory-team'. And, incidentally, you are all British! I would like to thank Dr Jill Jäger, Prof. Dr Ian Holman, Dr Calum Brown and our coordinator, Prof. Dr Paula Harrison. You all are exceptionally knowledgeable scientists as demonstrated by your research output, but not only. In this 'sorry-I'm-extremely-busy' world, you still found time to send valuable feedback, share life experiences and discuss with me many of the concepts that I would bring forward and finalise in this thesis. It is an honour to consider you my co-supervisors. Paula, thanks for ignoring Brexit and inviting me to pursue the UK-SSPs adventure in Lancaster! I'm humbled by the opportunity to working at CEH as part of the UK-SCAPE team guided by Prof. Dr James Bullock. vi Going back to IMPRESSIONS, the British team would not be complete without the Scottish-case-study team guided by Dr Liz Clarke, Dr Miriam Dunn and Prof. Mark Rounsevell. Thanks to all for contributing to my papers and sharing your wine knowledge. My heartfelt thanks also to the other 'Brits': Ms Alison Smith and Dr Robert Dunford for their sharp contribution to scientific discussions and papers. Thanks also to Dr Aidan Keith for lively discussions during IMPRESSIONS and at CEH. Thanks to the international case-study teams for unforgettable workshops, discussions and work together throughout Spain, Portugal, Hungary, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. I'd like to thank in particular Dr David Tabara and the fantastic artistic team, Dr Tiago Capela

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Systematically linking qualitative elements of scenarios across levels, scales, and sectors

Cited by 47 publications

References 35 publications

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts

A Python toolkit for visualizing greenhouse gas emissions at sub-county scales

Advancing the development and use of climate-change scenarios : A multi-scale analysis to explore socio-economic European futures

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