A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040

Abstract

Purpose The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities. Design/methodology/approach To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders. Findings Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government. Originality/value As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.

The adoption and institutionalization of governmental foresight practices in Singapore

“…By contrast, however, the academic progress of futures and foresight as a field of study in Singapore is significantly underdeveloped relative to its resources. Indeed, only eleven full length journal articles have been published by authors originating from Singapore -excluding the authors of this article- in futures & foresight journals and specifically within the discipline in and of itself [7] (Andrews-Speed et al , 2014; Chan and Dee Von Chng, 2012; Cheah et al , 2019; Fan and Khng, 2014a, 2014b; Funk, 2015; Kuosa, 2011; Nair et al , 2014; Schmidt, 2017; Wen, 2013; Zahraei et al , 2020). Furthermore, none of these articles have attempted to advance neither the theories nor the methodologies of the field.…”

Artificial Intelligence Policies to Enhance Urban Mobility in Southeast Asia

“…An integrated service allows users to plan, book, and pay for multiple types of mobility services using an integrated channel. In Zahraei et al (2020), it is anticipated that the future Singapore in 2040 will shift toward a shared living lifestyle featuring shared mobility and multi-zone districts, enabling users to gain shortterm access to transportation modes on an as-needed basis. Autonomous shuttle buses, shared Personal Mobility Devices (PMD), bicycle pathway networks will provide a conducive, comfortable first or last-mile connectivity from home to the nearest MRT stations.…”

Overview of Urban Mobility in Smart Cities

“…It is worth noting that the Singapore Ministry of Transport estimates that the full adoption of autonomous vehicles will only take about 10 to 15 years (Singapore, 2017). Even so, it is already possible to observe that, the implementation of these personal mobility devices to complement public transport services, with autonomous feeder bus for first and last mile trips and autonomous vehicles for sharing along with data analysis, can reduce traffic congestion by driving vehicles around the city more efficiently (Zahraei;Kurniawan & Cheah, 2020).…”