This paper tests the main postulates of the Sraffian supermultiplier model for the case of 16 European economies during the period 1995–2018. We adopt the methodology of Girardi and Pariboni (2016) and extend it to a panel framework. We apply panel unit root, cointegration, and causality tests that are robust to endogenous regressors, cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across countries. Our results are supportive of the Sraffian supermultiplier model. In a heterogeneous panel framework, autonomous demand and output follow a long-run equilibrium relationship and there exists panel long-run causality that goes unidirectionally from autonomous demand to output. We also empirically verify the investment accelerator (the mechanism that enables the dynamic stability of the model) by confirming the existence of same-sign panel causality running unidirectionally from the growth rate of autonomous demand to the investment share. Our results call for national economic policies aimed at promoting the components of autonomous demand that act as locomotives of growth in each country.

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Crisi, desigualtat i anàlisi econòmica, 1910-2015: alguns instruments de l'economia clàssica (Resum) El treball es focalitza sobre la interpretació de la Gran Recessió a partir d'alguns dels postulats provinents de l'economia clàssica i, en concret, de les teories de D. Ricardo, K. Marx i el complement de J.A. Schumpeter. Hom defensa la importància d'analitzar la crisi a partir d'indicadors que, generalment, es tenen poc en consideració per part de l'economia convencional: la naturalesa endògena de les crisis, l'evolució de la taxa de benefici i l'observació de la tendència a la productivitat del capital.

We test whether the growth rate of autonomous demand determines the growth rate of output in the United States. We apply asymmetric frequency‐domain Granger causality tests. We find that negative and positive shocks in the growth rate of autonomous demand unidirectionally Granger‐cause negative and positive shocks in the growth rate of output, respectively. These results apply in the short and in the long run. Our results are important because, unlike the existing empirical literature on autonomous demand‐led growth, they validate the autonomy of autonomous demand in the short and in the long run; which is key for the consistency of the supermultiplier model.

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This study examines the effects of the market volatility index of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (VIX) and the immediate interest rate of the United States on the Dow Jones Islamic Market Index (DJIMI) using quantile‐based techniques and wavelet coherence (WTC) analysis with monthly data for the period January 2010to May 2021. A quantile cointegration model indicated that the relationship between the VIX and the DJIMI can be valid in the long term since the estimated coefficients are negative and statistically significant across the quantiles 0.05 and 0.50, while a quantile autoregressive model revealed that large negative and positive changes in the VIX and the immediate interest rate of the United States do not have a significant impact on the DJIMI in the short term. Allowing the role of regime changes, it was found by the quantile regression model that an increase in the VIX lowers the performance in the DJIMI, supported by the WTC. It was also underlined that the DJIMI may not benefit from the positive financial conditions. According to the quantile regression models, the immediate interest rate of the US has asymmetrical effects, and the stabilizing effect of the increase/decrease is valid during bearish/bullish market conditions in the DJIMI.

The tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) has been the subject of hundreds of investigations. However, most of these investigations have limited themselves to empirically verify a dynamic relationship between tourism receipts and economic activity, leaving aside the theoretical background or the baseline economic growth model on which the TLGH could be built. With this in mind, the authors present a multiplier-accelerator growth model and state that it is a good option to analyze the TLGH. This model fits the TLGH, since its long-run equilibrium positions are analogous to the TLGH. However, multiplier-accelerator growth models generally suffer from dynamic instability. Therefore, the authors propose a model with an investment function that, by relating the acceleration of investment just to the “permanent” increases in demand, is able to replicate the “relative stability” of growth of tourism-based economies.

Purpose The authors estimate the multiplier effect of government public infrastructure investment in Spain. This paper aims to use annual data of the 17 Spanish autonomous communities for the 1980–2016 period. Design/methodology/approach The authors use dynamic acyclic graphs and the heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (P-SVAR) method of Pedroni (2013). This method is robust to cross-sectional heterogeneity and dependence, which are present in the data. Findings The findings suggest that an increase in the level of government public infrastructure investment generates a positive and persistent effect on the level of output. Five years after the fiscal expansion, the multiplier effects of government public infrastructure investment reach values above one. This confirms that government public infrastructure investment expansions have Keynesian effects. The authors also find that the multiplier effects differ between autonomous communities with above-average and below-average GDP per capita. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no research uses dynamic acyclic graphs and heterogeneous P-SVAR techniques to estimate fiscal multipliers of government public investment in Spain by using subnational data.