This paper tests the main postulates of the Sraffian supermultiplier model for the case of 16 European economies during the period 1995–2018. We adopt the methodology of Girardi and Pariboni (2016) and extend it to a panel framework. We apply panel unit root, cointegration, and causality tests that are robust to endogenous regressors, cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across countries. Our results are supportive of the Sraffian supermultiplier model. In a heterogeneous panel framework, autonomous demand and output follow a long-run equilibrium relationship and there exists panel long-run causality that goes unidirectionally from autonomous demand to output. We also empirically verify the investment accelerator (the mechanism that enables the dynamic stability of the model) by confirming the existence of same-sign panel causality running unidirectionally from the growth rate of autonomous demand to the investment share. Our results call for national economic policies aimed at promoting the components of autonomous demand that act as locomotives of growth in each country.
Crisi, desigualtat i anàlisi econòmica, 1910-2015: alguns instruments de l'economia clàssica (Resum) El treball es focalitza sobre la interpretació de la Gran Recessió a partir d'alguns dels postulats provinents de l'economia clàssica i, en concret, de les teories de D. Ricardo, K. Marx i el complement de J.A. Schumpeter. Hom defensa la importància d'analitzar la crisi a partir d'indicadors que, generalment, es tenen poc en consideració per part de l'economia convencional: la naturalesa endògena de les crisis, l'evolució de la taxa de benefici i l'observació de la tendència a la productivitat del capital.
We test whether the growth rate of autonomous demand determines the growth rate of output in the United States. We apply asymmetric frequency‐domain Granger causality tests. We find that negative and positive shocks in the growth rate of autonomous demand unidirectionally Granger‐cause negative and positive shocks in the growth rate of output, respectively. These results apply in the short and in the long run. Our results are important because, unlike the existing empirical literature on autonomous demand‐led growth, they validate the autonomy of autonomous demand in the short and in the long run; which is key for the consistency of the supermultiplier model.
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