Climate change poses one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Most analyses of the impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but increasing variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the combined effects of the mean and the variance of temperature on thermal tolerances-i.e., critical thermal maxima, critical thermal minima, scope of thermal tolerance, and survival in Drosophila melanogaster. Our six experimental climatic scenarios were: constant mean with zero variance or constant variance or increasing variance; changing mean with zero variance or constant variance or increasing variance. Our key result was that environments with changing thermal variance reduce the scope of thermal tolerance and survival. Heat tolerance seems to be conserved, but cold tolerance decreases significantly with mean low as well as changing environmental temperatures. Flies acclimated to scenarios of changing variance-with either constant or changing mean temperatures-exhibited significantly lower survival rate. Our results imply that changing and constant variances would be just as important in future scenarios of climate change under greenhouse warming as increases in mean annual temperature. To develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, such interactions between the mean and variance of environmental temperature should be considered.

Thermal performance curves have provided a common framework to study the impact of temperature in biological systems. However, few generalities have emerged to date. Here, we combine an experimental approach with theoretical analyses to demonstrate that performance curves are expected to vary predictably with the levels of biological organization. We measured rates of enzymatic reactions, organismal performance and population viability in Drosophila acclimated to different thermal conditions and show that performance curves become narrower with thermal optima shifting towards lower temperatures at higher levels or organization. We then explain these results on theoretical grounds, showing that this pattern reflects the cumulative impact of asymmetric thermal effects that piles up with complexity. These results and the proposed framework are important to understand how organisms, populations and ecological communities might respond to changing thermal conditions.

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) compute the effects of temperature on the performance of ectotherms and are frequently used to predict the effect of environmental conditions and currently, climate change, on organismal vulnerability and sensitivity. Using Drosophila melanogaster as an animal model, we examined how different thermal environments affected the shape of the performance curve and their parameters. We measured the climbing speed as a measure of locomotor performance in adult flies and tested the ontogenetic and transgenerational effects of thermal environment on TPC shape. Parents and offspring were reared at 28 ± 0ºC (28C), 28 ± 4ºC (28V), and 30 ± 0ºC (30C). We found that both, environmental thermal variability (28V) and high temperature (30C) experienced during early ontogeny shaped the fruit fly TPC sensitivity. Flies reared at variable thermal environments shifted the TPC to the right and increased heat tolerance. Flies held at high and constant temperature exhibited lower maximum performance than flies reared at the variable thermal environment. Furthermore, these effects were extended to the next generation. The parental thermal environment had a significative effect on TPC and its parameters. Indeed, flies reared at 28V whose parents were held at a high and constant temperature (30C) had a lower heat tolerance than F1 of flies reared at 28C or 28V. Also, offspring of flies reared at variable thermal environment (28V) reached the maximum performance at a higher temperature than offspring of flies reared at 28C or 30C. Consequently, since TPC parameters are not fixed, we suggest cautiousness when using TPCs to predict the impact of climate change on natural populations.

Understanding the ecological consequences of changing environments and extreme climatic events has grown more prominent as climate change scenarios predict more frequent and pronounced fluctuations in temperature (Vázquez, Gianoli, Morris, & Bozinovic, 2017). The world's climate is changing dramatically, to such an extent that the 90% probability interval for global warming from 1990 to 2,100 predicts an increase in average temperatures ranging from 1.7°C to 4.9°C (IPCC, Rahmstorf & Coumou, 2011). And while it is acknowledged that warming temperatures will have a sig

Here we combined controlled experiments and field surveys to determine if estimates of heat tolerance predict distributional ranges and phenology of different Drosophila species in southern South America. We contrasted thermal death time curves, which consider both magnitude and duration of the challenge to estimate heat tolerance, against the thermal range where populations are viable based on field surveys in an 8‐year longitudinal study. We observed a strong correspondence of the physiological limits, the thermal niche for population growth, and the geographic ranges across studied species, which suggests that the thermal biology of different species provides a common currency to understand how species will respond to warming temperatures both at a local level and throughout their distribution range. Our approach represents a novel analytical toolbox to anticipate how natural communities of ectothermic organisms will respond to global warming.

Understanding how species adapt to different temperatures is crucial to predict their response to global warming, and thermal performance curves (TPCs) have been employed recurrently to study this topic. Nevertheless, fundamental questions regarding how thermodynamic constraints and evolution interact to shape TPCs in lineages inhabiting different environments remain unanswered. Here, we study Drosophila simulans along a latitudinal gradient spanning 3000 km to test opposing hypotheses based on thermodynamic constrains ( hotter-is-better ) versus biochemical adaptation ( jack-of-all-temperatures ) as primary determinants of TPCs variation across populations. We compare thermal responses in metabolic rate and the egg-to-adult survival as descriptors of organismal performance and fitness, respectively, and show that different descriptors of TPCs vary in tandem with mean environmental temperatures, providing strong support to hotter-is-better . Thermodynamic constraints also resulted in a strong negative association between maximum performance and thermal breadth. Lastly, we show that descriptors of TPCs for metabolism and egg-to-adult survival are highly correlated, providing evidence of co-adaptation, and that curves for egg-to-adult survival are systematically narrower and displaced toward lower temperatures. Taken together, our results support the pervasive role of thermodynamics constraining thermal responses in Drosophila populations along a latitudinal gradient, that are only partly compensated by evolutionary adaptation.

Phenotypic plasticity allows organisms to cope with variable environmental conditions increasing both performance and fitness. We studied within-generation plasticity and transgenerational effects of thermal conditions on temperature tolerance and demographic parameters in Drosophila melanogaster. We employed a fully factorial design, in which both parental (P) and offspring generations (F1) were reared in a constant or a variable thermal environment. Thermal variability during ontogeny increased heat tolerance in P, but with demographic cost as this treatment resulted in substantially lower survival, fecundity and net reproductive rate. The adverse effects of thermal variability (V) on demographic parameters were less drastic in flies from the F1, which exhibited higher net reproductive rates than their parents. These compensatory responses could not totally overcome the challenges of the thermally variable regime, contrasting with the offspring of flies raised in a constant temperature (C) that showed no reduction in fitness with thermal variation. Thus, the parental thermal environment had effect on thermal tolerance and demographic parameters in fruit-fly. These results demonstrate how transgenerational effects of environmental conditions on heat tolerance, as well as their potential costs on other fitness components, can have a major impact on populations' resilience to warming temperatures and more frequent thermal extremes.