Climate change poses one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Most analyses of the impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but increasing variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the combined effects of the mean and the variance of temperature on thermal tolerances-i.e., critical thermal maxima, critical thermal minima, scope of thermal tolerance, and survival in Drosophila melanogaster. Our six experimental climatic scenarios were: constant mean with zero variance or constant variance or increasing variance; changing mean with zero variance or constant variance or increasing variance. Our key result was that environments with changing thermal variance reduce the scope of thermal tolerance and survival. Heat tolerance seems to be conserved, but cold tolerance decreases significantly with mean low as well as changing environmental temperatures. Flies acclimated to scenarios of changing variance-with either constant or changing mean temperatures-exhibited significantly lower survival rate. Our results imply that changing and constant variances would be just as important in future scenarios of climate change under greenhouse warming as increases in mean annual temperature. To develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, such interactions between the mean and variance of environmental temperature should be considered.
Thermal performance curves (TPCs) compute the effects of temperature on the performance of ectotherms and are frequently used to predict the effect of environmental conditions and currently, climate change, on organismal vulnerability and sensitivity. Using Drosophila melanogaster as an animal model, we examined how different thermal environments affected the shape of the performance curve and their parameters. We measured the climbing speed as a measure of locomotor performance in adult flies and tested the ontogenetic and transgenerational effects of thermal environment on TPC shape. Parents and offspring were reared at 28 ± 0ºC (28C), 28 ± 4ºC (28V), and 30 ± 0ºC (30C). We found that both, environmental thermal variability (28V) and high temperature (30C) experienced during early ontogeny shaped the fruit fly TPC sensitivity. Flies reared at variable thermal environments shifted the TPC to the right and increased heat tolerance. Flies held at high and constant temperature exhibited lower maximum performance than flies reared at the variable thermal environment. Furthermore, these effects were extended to the next generation. The parental thermal environment had a significative effect on TPC and its parameters. Indeed, flies reared at 28V whose parents were held at a high and constant temperature (30C) had a lower heat tolerance than F1 of flies reared at 28C or 28V. Also, offspring of flies reared at variable thermal environment (28V) reached the maximum performance at a higher temperature than offspring of flies reared at 28C or 30C. Consequently, since TPC parameters are not fixed, we suggest cautiousness when using TPCs to predict the impact of climate change on natural populations.
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