Average and extreme temperatures will increase in the near future, but how such shifts will affect mortality in natural populations is still unclear. We used a dynamic model to predict mortality under variable temperatures on the basis of heat tolerance laboratory measurements. Theoretical lethal temperatures for 11 Drosophila species under different warming conditions were virtually indistinguishable from empirical results. For Drosophila in the field, daily mortality predicted from ambient temperature records accumulate over weeks or months, consistent with observed seasonal fluctuations and population collapse in nature. Our model quantifies temperature-induced mortality in nature, which is crucial to study the effects of global warming on natural populations, and analyses highlight that critical temperatures are unreliable predictors of mortality.

Thermal performance curves are widely used to describe how ambient temperature impacts different attributes of ectothermic organisms, from protein function to life-history traits, and to predict the potential effects of global warming on ecological systems. Nonetheless, from an analytical standpoint, they remain primarily heuristic and few attempts have been made to develop a formal framework to characterize these curves and disentangle which factors contribute to their variation. Here we employ a nonlinear regression approach to assess if they vary systematically in shape depending on the performance proxy of choice. We compare curves at contrasting levels of organization, namely photosynthetic rates in plants ( n = 43), running speeds in lizards ( n = 51) and intrinsic rates of population increase in insects ( n = 47), and show with discriminant analyses that differences lie in a single dimension accounting for 99.1% of the variation, resulting in 75.8% of classification accuracy. Differences revolve primarily around the thermal range for elevated performance (greater than or equal to 50% of maximum performance), which is broader for photosynthetic rates (median of 26.4°C), intermediate for running speeds (19.5°C) and narrower for intrinsic rates of increase (12.5°C). We contend, confounding taxonomic factors aside, that these differences reflect contrasting levels of biological organization, and hypothesize that the thermal range for elevated performance should decrease at higher organization levels. In this scenario, instantaneous or short-term measures of performance may grossly overestimate the thermal safety margins for population growth and reproduction. Taken together, our analyses suggest that descriptors of the curve are highly correlated and respond in tandem, potentially resulting in systematic variation in shape across organization levels. Future studies should take into consideration this potential bias, address if it constitutes a general pattern and, if so, explain why and how it emerges. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen’.

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Abstract. Metabolic rate is a key aspect of organismal biology and the identification of selective factors that have led to species differences is a major goal of evolutionary physiology. We tested whether environmental characteristics and/or diet were significant predictors of interspecific variation in rodent metabolic rates. Mass-specific basal metabolic rates (BMR) and maximum metabolic rates (MMR, measured during cold exposure in a He-O 2 atmosphere) were compiled from the literature. Maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) annual mean temperatures, latitude, altitude, and precipitation were obtained from field stations close to the capture sites reported for each population (N ϭ 57). Diet and all continuous-valued traits showed statistically significant phylogenetic signal, with the exception of masscorrected MMR and altitude. Therefore, results of phylogenetic analyses are emphasized. Body mass was not correlated with absolute latitude, but was positively correlated with precipitation in analyses with phylogenetically independent contrasts. Conventional multiple regressions that included body mass indicated that Tmax (best), Tmin, latitude, and diet were significant additional predictors of BMR. However, phylogenetic analyses indicated that latitude was the only significant predictor of mass-adjusted BMR (positive partial regression coefficient, one-tailed P ϭ 0.0465). Conventional analyses indicated that Tmax, Tmin (best), and altitude explained significant amounts of the variation in mass-adjusted MMR. With body mass and Tmin in the model, no additional variables were significant predictors. Phylogenetic contrasts yielded similar results. Both conventional and phylogenetic analyses indicated a highly significant positive correlation between residual BMR and MMR (as has also been reported for birds), which is consistent with a key assumption of the aerobic capacity model for the evolution of vertebrate energetics (assuming that MMR and exercise-induced maximal oxygen consumption are positively functionally related). Our results support the hypothesis that variation in environmental factors leads to variation in the selective regime for metabolic rates of rodents. However, the causes of a positive association between BMR and latitude remain obscure. Moreover, an important area for future research will be experiments in all taxa are raised under common conditions to allow definitive tests of climatic adaptation in endotherm metabolic rates and to elucidate the extent of adaptive phenotypic plasticity.

2001. Seasonal regulation in fluctuating small mammal populations: feedback structure and climate. -Oikos 94: 505 -514.We studied fluctuating populations of six small mammal species in the Appalachian Plateau of Pennsylvania, USA for 20 yr. We analyzed the feedback structure of these species using statistical time series models for spring and autumn abundances. All species showed a seasonal density-dependent structure, and in five of them first-order feedbacks were dominant in winter and summer. Instead, southern red-backed voles (Clethrionomys gapperi ) showed a different feedback structure during winter and summer. In three species (C. gapperi, Napaeozapus insignis and Peromyscus maniculatus), environmental factors were more important during summer, while the opposite pattern was found in Blarina bre6icauda and Tamias striatus. Snowfall influenced positively the winter population growth rates of southern red-backed voles, whitefooted mice, woodland jumping mice and eastern chipmunks. We found seasonal differences in the effects of the small mammals assemblage on population growth rates of the two Peromyscus species. The common feedback structure between seasons observed in most of the species, particularly among voles and mice, points to a different feedback structure from northern cyclic small mammals. We conclude that a seasonal feedback structure dominated by intra-and inter-specific competitive interactions may be at the basis of the population dynamics of these species.

Flexibility of digestive features can be understood considering the benefits of digestion, which links animal foraging to metabolizable energy and nutrient gain, and its costs, which are partly indexed by digestive tract tissue mass, one of the most expensive to maintain in terms of energy and protein metabolism. In this article, we applied a meta-analytical approach to current data on rodents' small intestine length flexibility to evaluate the climatic variability hypothesis (CVH). This hypothesis states the following: (1) as the range of climatic fluctuation experienced by terrestrial animals increases with latitude, individuals at higher latitudes should be more flexible to persist at a site; (2) the greater phenotypic flexibility allows species to occupy more habitats and to become more widely distributed. We compiled data from 25 articles, which provided a total of 86 estimations of flexibility involving 20 rodent species. Consistent with CVH predictions, we found a positive correlation between small intestine length flexibility and latitude and between small intestine length flexibility and the number of habitats occupied by different species. When seen from the perspective of digestive physiology, our analysis is an important piece of evidence on the adaptive value of digestive flexibility in small mammals.

We studied the potential for response to selection in typical physiological-thermoregulatory traits of mammals such as maximum metabolic rate (MMR), nonshivering thermogenesis (NST) and basal metabolic rate (BMR) on cold-acclimated animals. We used an animal model approach to estimate both narrow-sense heritabilities (h 2 ) and genetic correlations between physiological and growth-related traits. Univariate analyses showed that MMR presented high, significant heritability (h 2 ϭ 0.69 Ϯ 0.35, asymptotic standard error), suggesting the potential for microevolution in this variable. However, NST and BMR presented low, nonsignificant h 2 , and NST showed large maternal/common environmental/nonadditive effects (c 2 ϭ 0.34 Ϯ 0.17). Heritabilities were large and significant (h 2 Ͼ 0.5) for all growth-related traits (birth mass, growth rate, weaning mass). The only significant genetic correlations we found between a physiological trait and a growth-related trait was between NST and birth mass (r ϭ Ϫ0.74; P Ͻ 0.05). Overall, these results suggest that additive genetic variance is present in several bioenergetic traits, and that genetic correlations could be present between those different kinds of traits.

Many small mammals inhabiting fluctuating and cold environments display enhanced capacity for seasonal changes in nonshivering thermogenesis (NST) and thermoregulatory maximum metabolic rate (MMR). However, it is not known how this plasticity remains in a mammal that rarely experiences extreme thermal fluctuations. In order to answer this question, we determined body mass (m(b)), basal metabolic rate (BMR), NST, MMR, and minimum thermal conductance (C) on a Chilean fossorial caviomorph (Spalacopus cyanus) from a coastal population, acclimated to cold (15 degrees C) and warm (30 degrees C) conditions. NST was measured as the maximum response of metabolic rate (NST(max)) after injection of norepinephrine (NE) in thermoneutrality minus BMR. Maximum metabolic rate was assessed in animals exposed to enhanced heat-loss atmosphere (He-O2) connected with an open-flow respirometer. Body mass and metabolic variables increased significantly after cold acclimation with respect to warm acclimation but to a low extent (BMR, 26%; NST, 10%; and MMR, 12%). However, aerobic scope (MMR/BMR), calculated shivering thermogenesis (ST), and C did not change with acclimation regime. Our data suggest that physiological plasticity of S. cyanus is relatively low, which is in accordance with a fossorial mode of life. Although little is known about MMR and NST in fossorial mammals, S. cyanus has remarkably high NST; low MMR; and surprisingly, a nil capacity of ST when compared with other rodents.