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The identification of traits associated with drought tolerance in popcorn is a contribution to support selection of superior plants under soil water deficit. The objective of this study was to choose morphological traits and the leaf greenness index, measured on different dates, to estimate grain yield (GY) and popping expansion (PE), evaluated in a set of 20 popcorn lines with different genealogies, estimated by multiple regression models. The variables were divided into three groups: morpho-agronomic traits—100-grain weight (GW), prolificacy (PR), tassel length (TL), number of tassel branches, anthesis-silking interval, leaf angle (FA) and leaf rolling (FB); variables related to the intensity of leaf greenness during the grain-filling period, at the leaf level, measured by a portable chlorophyll meter (SPAD) and at the canopy level, calculated as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The inbred lines were cultivated under two water conditions: well-watered (WW), maintained at field capacity, and water stress (WS), for which irrigation was stopped before male flowering. The traits GY (55%) and PE (28%) were most affected by water restriction. Among the morpho-agronomic traits, GW and PR were markedly reduced (>10%). Under dry conditions, the FA in relation to the plant stalk tended to be wider, the FB curvature greater and leaf senescence accelerated (>15% at 22 days after male flowering). The use of multiple regression for the selection of predictive traits proved to be a useful tool for the identification of groups of adequate traits to efficiently predict the economically most important features of popcorn (GY and PE). The SPAD index measured 17 days after male flowering proved useful to select indirectly for GY, while, among the morphological traits, TL stood out for the same purpose. Of all traits, PR was most strongly related with PE under WS, indicating its use in breeding programs. The exploitation of these traits by indirect selection is expected to induce increments in GY and PE.

Drought currently affects several regions worldwide and tends to be more frequent due to climate change. It might compromise food security and the economic structure related to agribusiness. Popcorn has a crucial role in the Brazilian economy, but the cultivars that adapt to water stress, the most prejudicial abiotic stress for crop productivity, are unknown to date. This deficit of popcorn varieties adapted to heat and drought stresses will become more limiting with climate change. Given this scenario, knowing the genetic basis of agronomic traits under stress conditions is essential in promoting crop productivity and plant adaptation to abiotic stresses. Under two contrasting water conditions (WC) and different crop seasons (CS), we aimed to generate information about the combining ability of 10 popcorn progenitors and 15 hybrids through a partial diallel-mating design. The water stress was initiated at the male pre-anthesis stage. Significant genotype*crop seasons (G*CS), genotype*water condition (G*WC), and genotype*crop seasons*water condition (G*CS*WC) interactions were present. Regardless of CS and WC, non-additive effects controlled grain yield (GY), grain number per row (GN), ear length and diameter (ED), and 100-grain weight, while additive effects were present for popping expansion (PE). For each CS, regardless of WC, the cause-effect of GN (2018) and ED (2020) on GY seems to be an opportunity for indirect selection. Utilizing genetically broad-based hybrids is also a good opportunity for obtaining superior genotypes for GY and PE as it is possible to select inbred lines for both of these traits. We recommend the L76 × L61 hybrid for the Brazilian agribusiness context due to its greater productivity and dominance deviations.

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