The Patos Lagoon estuary is an important environment for the life cycle of many species, including the pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis. This area acts as a nursery ground for the shrimp larvae, which are spawned in a coastal area and transported into the lagoon during spring and early summer (September to December). Harvesting of shrimp occurs from January to May, and yields have varied from around 1,000 to 8,000 tons year −1 . This study is based on analysis of river discharge, pink shrimp catches, and wind velocity time series from 1964 to 2004. Negative correlation between pink shrimp catches and river runoff reflects the influence of discharge on the lagoon circulation and, consequently, on the intrusion of salt water and larvae. When river discharge is below average, landward currents forced by SW winds can enhance larval transport into the estuarine area, leading to an increase in pink shrimp captures. Above average river input would force a seaward flow that works as a barrier to ingress of larvae. This is unusual when compared to many other estuarine systems, and the main factor that accounts for this behavior is the morphology (choking) of Patos Lagoon. Interannual variability related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation events also influence pink shrimp production in this area. Low/high shrimp catches are related to El Niño (flood)/La Niña (drought) events. Wind can also impact production through its effect on the southward displacement of larvae from the spawning area. Long-term trends indicate an increase in river discharge around 20 m 3 s −1 year −1 and a decrease in shrimp catches on the order of 57 tons year −1 .

The reproductive environment of the South‐west Atlantic anchovy, Engraulis anchoita, in the southern Brazilian coast was investigated using maritime weather reports from the US National Climatic Center. These reports were summarized to yield seasonal distributions of sea surface temperature, wind stress and Ekman transport for 2‐month segments of the seasonal cycle. The vertical oceanographic structure and dynamics were studied using temperature and salinity data collected from oceanographic cruises. The seasonal distribution and biomass of South‐west Atlantic anchovy spawners were estimated by acoustic surveys. Anchoita spawns intensively off southern Brazil during winter and early spring when the Ekman transport is directed onshore, and the combined effects of freshwater run‐off and the flow of cold water near the bottom result in a strong vertical stability over the continental shelf. During this season, primary production peaks due to nutrient input from Sub‐Antarctic waters and freshwater run‐off. These conditions would avoid dispersal of eggs and larvae offshore and favour the production and maintenance of fine‐scale food particle aggregations required for successful first feeding of newly hatched larvae. In summer, the conditions are almost reversed and anchoita spawners are virtually absent from the area. Thus, the spawning strategy of anchoita in southern Brazil seems to be tuned in a way to optimize larval retention, minimize exposure to turbulent mixing and take advantage of enhanced plankton productivity.

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We present an interdisciplinary review of the observed and projected variations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation within the southwestern South Atlantic focused on basin-scale processes driven by climate change, and their potential impact on the regional fisheries. The observed patterns of atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with anthropogenic climate change. There is strong scientific evidence suggesting that the Brazil Current is intensifying and shifting southwards during the past decades in response to changes in near-surface wind patterns, leading to intense ocean warming along the path of the Brazil Current, the South Brazil Bight, and in the Río de la Plata. These changes are presumably responsible for the poleward shift of commercially important pelagic species in the region and the long-term shift from cold-water to warm-water species in industrial fisheries of Uruguay. Scientific and traditional knowledge shows that climate change is also affecting small-scale fisheries. Long-term records suggest that mass mortalities decimated harvested clam populations along coastal ecosystems of the region, leading to prolonged shellfishery closures. More frequent and intense harmful algal blooms together with unfavorable environmental conditions driven by climate change stressors affect coastal shellfisheries, impact economic revenues, and damage the livelihood of local communities. We identify future modelling needs to reduce uncertainty in the expected effects of climate change on marine fisheries. However, the paucity of fisheries data prevents a more effective assessment of the impact of climate change on fisheries and hampers the ability of governments and communities to adapt to these changes.

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