Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid-21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid-21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid-21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30-40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/ residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.(KEY TERMS: climate change; urban and residential development; streamflow; water quality; sensitivity; assessment; Soil and Water Assessment Tool.)
Simulations of future climate change impacts on water resources are subject to multiple and cascading uncertainties associated with different modeling and methodological choices. A key facet of this uncertainty is the coarse spatial resolution of GCM output compared to the finer-resolution information needed by water managers. To address this issue, it is now common practice to apply spatial downscaling techniques, using either higher-resolution regional climate models or statistical approaches applied to GCM output to develop finer-resolution information for use in water resources impacts assessments. Downscaling, however, can also introduce its own uncertainties into water resources impacts assessments. This study uses watershed simulations in five U.S. basins to quantify the sources of variability in streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads associated with the underlying GCM compared to the choice of downscaling method (both statistically and dynamically downscaled GCM output). We also assess the specific, incremental effects of downscaling by comparing watershed simulations based on downscaled and non-downscaled GCM model output. Results show that the underlying GCM and the downscaling method each contribute to the variability of simulated watershed responses. The relative contribution of GCM and downscaling method to the variability of simulated responses varies by watershed and season of the year. Results illustrate the potential implications of one key methodological choice in conducting climate change impacts assessments for water - the selection of downscaled climate change information.
Ecologists with the Fairfax County Department of Public Works and Environmental Services, primarily Shannon Curtis and Joe Sanchirico, have contributed greatly to this effort through field work and program responsibilities. Their dedication to the success of this effort has been vital in the progress toward the achievement of program objectives. Staff at the Fairfax County Environmental Services Laboratory performed the nutrient analyses for the large number of samples collected. Their efforts to accommodate unpredictable sample collection schedules are greatly appreciated. This study was designed by Doug Moyer and Ken Hyer of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), who continue to contribute to the success of the effort by sharing expertise in water-resources monitoring and data analysis. Alyssa Thornton and numerous USGS hydrologic technicians have spent substantial amounts of time in the field maintaining instrumentation and collecting data, and their efforts are greatly appreciated. We would also like to thank Guoxiang Yang for his analysis of long-term trends in continuously collected specific conductance data.
Summary Sublethal effects of predation can affect both population and community structure. Despite this, little is known about how the frequency of injury varies in relation to habitat, aquatic community characteristics or between trophically similar, coexisting taxa. In a tidal freshwater ecosystem, we first examined injuries (lamellar autotomy) of Enallagma and Ischnura damselfly larvae, which have unique behaviours and susceptibilities to predation, as a function of habitat type, body size and overall odonate density. We also examined relative abundance of these genera and potential anisopteran predators as a function of habitat type. The frequency of injury to Enallagma was high when larvae were small and overall odonate density was high. For Ischnura, however, the frequency of injury depended on habitat and was high for small larvae in less disturbed habitats low on the shore. Ischnura were most frequently found in more disturbed habitats high on the shore, whereas Enallagma were more frequently found in less disturbed habitats low on the shore. The relative importance of factors hypothesised to structure odonate communities varied between coexisting Enallagma and Ischnura. Distinctive distributions and patterns of injury for each genus provided new insights on the potential for intraguild interactions to modify habitat associations in tidal freshwater ecosystems.
Combined heat and power (CHP) is promoted as an economical, energy-efficient option for reducing air emissions, mitigating carbon emissions and reducing reliance on grid electricity. However, its potential benefits have only been analyzed within the context of the current energy system. To fully examine the viability of CHP as a clean-technology alternative, its growth must be analyzed considering how the energy sector may transform under the influence of various technological and policy drivers that are specifically geared toward limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenarios were developed through a bottom-up technology model of the U.S. energy system to determine the impacts on CHP development and both system-wide and sectoral GHG and air pollutant emissions. Various scenarios were considered, from CO 2 emissions reductions in the electric generating units (EGU) sector to GHG reductions across the whole energy system while considering levels of CHP investment. The largest CHP investments were observed in scenarios that limited CO 2 emission from the EGU sector alone. The investments were scaled back in the scenarios that incorporated energy system level GHG reductions. The energy system level reduction scenarios yielded rapid transformation of the EGU sector towards zeroemissions technologies as reliance on electricity increases with the electrification of the many end-use sectors such as buildings, transportation and industrial sectors, reducing investment in CHP. The prime mover and fuel choice heavily influenced the air pollutant emissions resulting in trade-offs among pollutants including GHG emissions. The results suggest that CHP could play a role in a future low-carbon energy system, but that role diminishes as carbon reduction targets increase.
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