Far more species of organisms are found in the tropics than in temperate and polar regions, but the evolutionary and ecological causes of this pattern remain controversial. Tropical marine fish communities are much more diverse than cold-water fish communities found at higher latitudes, and several explanations for this latitudinal diversity gradient propose that warm reef environments serve as evolutionary 'hotspots' for species formation. Here we test the relationship between latitude, species richness and speciation rate across marine fishes. We assembled a time-calibrated phylogeny of all ray-finned fishes (31,526 tips, of which 11,638 had genetic data) and used this framework to describe the spatial dynamics of speciation in the marine realm. We show that the fastest rates of speciation occur in species-poor regions outside the tropics, and that high-latitude fish lineages form new species at much faster rates than their tropical counterparts. High rates of speciation occur in geographical regions that are characterized by low surface temperatures and high endemism. Our results reject a broad class of mechanisms under which the tropics serve as an evolutionary cradle for marine fish diversity and raise new questions about why the coldest oceans on Earth are present-day hotspots of species formation.

Several evolutionary theories predict that rates of morphological change should be positively associated with the rate at which new species arise. For example, the theory of punctuated equilibrium proposes that phenotypic change typically occurs in rapid bursts associated with speciation events. However, recent phylogenetic studies have found little evidence linking these processes in nature. Here we demonstrate that rates of species diversification are highly correlated with the rate of body size evolution across the 30,000 þ living species of ray-finned fishes that comprise the majority of vertebrate biological diversity. This coupling is a general feature of fish evolution and transcends vast differences in ecology and body-plan organization. Our results may reflect a widespread speciational mode of character change in living fishes. Alternatively, these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that phenotypic 'evolvability'-the capacity of organisms to evolve-shapes the dynamics of speciation through time at the largest phylogenetic scales.

Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures (BAMM) is a statistical framework that uses reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to infer complex macroevolutionary dynamics of diversification and phenotypic evolution on phylogenetic trees. A recent article by Moore et al. (MEA) reported a number of theoretical and practical concerns with BAMM. Major claims from MEA are that (i) BAMM’s likelihood function is incorrect, because it does not account for unobserved rate shifts; (ii) the posterior distribution on the number of rate shifts is overly sensitive to the prior; and (iii) diversification rate estimates from BAMM are unreliable. Here, we show that these and other conclusions from MEA are generally incorrect or unjustified. We first demonstrate that MEA’s numerical assessment of the BAMM likelihood is compromised by their use of an invalid likelihood function. We then show that “unobserved rate shifts” appear to be irrelevant for biologically plausible parameterizations of the diversification process. We find that the purportedly extreme prior sensitivity reported by MEA cannot be replicated with standard usage of BAMM v2.5, or with any other version when conventional Bayesian model selection is performed. Finally, we demonstrate that BAMM performs very well at estimating diversification rate variation across the \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}${\sim}$\end{document}20% of simulated trees in MEA’s data set for which it is theoretically possible to infer rate shifts with confidence. Due to ascertainment bias, the remaining 80% of their purportedly variable-rate phylogenies are statistically indistinguishable from those produced by a constant-rate birth–death process and were thus poorly suited for the summary statistics used in their performance assessment. We demonstrate that inferences about diversification rates have been accurate and consistent across all major previous releases of the BAMM software. We recognize an acute need to address the theoretical foundations of rate-shift models for phylogenetic trees, and we expect BAMM and other modeling frameworks to improve in response to mathematical and computational innovations. However, we remain optimistic that that the imperfect tools currently available to comparative biologists have provided and will continue to provide important insights into the diversification of life on Earth.

Large language models have recently been shown to attain reasonable zero-shot generalization on a diverse set of tasks (Brown et al., 2020). It has been hypothesized that this is a consequence of implicit multitask learning in language model training . Can zero-shot generalization instead be directly induced by explicit multitask learning? To test this question at scale, we develop a system for easily mapping general natural language tasks into a human-readable prompted form. We convert a large set of supervised datasets, each with multiple prompts using varying natural language. These prompted datasets allow for benchmarking the ability of a model to perform completely unseen tasks specified in natural language. We fine-tune a pretrained encoder-decoder model on this multitask mixture covering a wide variety of tasks. The model attains strong zero-shot performance on several standard datasets, often outperforming models up to 16× its size. Further, our approach attains strong performance on a subset of tasks from the BIG-Bench benchmark, outperforming models up to 6× its size. All prompts and trained models are available at github.com/bigscience-workshop/promptsource/ and huggingface.co/bigscience/T0pp.

Comprehensive, time‐scaled phylogenies provide a critical resource for many questions in ecology, evolution and biodiversity. Methodological advances have increased the breadth of taxonomic coverage in phylogenetic data; however, accessing and reusing these data remain challenging. We introduce the Fish Tree of Life website and associated r package fishtree to provide convenient access to sequences, phylogenies, fossil calibrations and diversification rate estimates for the most diverse group of vertebrate organisms, the ray‐finned fishes. The Fish Tree of Life website presents subsets and visual summaries of phylogenetic and comparative data, and is complemented by the r package, which provides flexible programmatic access to the same underlying data source for advanced users wishing to extend or reanalyse the data. We demonstrate functionality with an overview of the website, and show three examples of advanced usage through the r package. First, we test for the presence of long branch attraction artefacts across the fish tree of life. The second example examines the effects of habitat on diversification rate in the pufferfishes. The final example demonstrates how a community phylogenetic analysis could be conducted with the package. This resource makes a large comparative vertebrate dataset easily accessible via the website, while the r package enables the rapid reuse and reproducibility of research results via its ability to easily integrate with other r packages and software for molecular biology and comparative methods.

Ultraconserved elements (UCEs) have become popular markers in phylogenetic studies because of their cost effectiveness in phylogenomic analyses and because of their potential to resolve problematic phylogenetic questions such as interspecific relationships within the rayfinned fishes. Although UCE datasets typically contain a much larger number of loci and sites than more traditional datasets of PCR-amplified, single-copy, protein coding genes, a fraction of UCE sites are expected to be part of a nearly invariant core, and the relative performance of UCE datasets versus protein coding gene datasets is poorly understood. Here we use phylogenetic informativeness (PI) to compare the resolving power of multi-locus and UCE datasets in a sample of percomorph fishes with sequenced genomes (genome-enabled). We compare three data sets: UCE core regions, flanking sequence adjacent to the UCE core and a set of ten protein coding genes commonly used in fish systematics. We found the net informativeness of UCE core and flank regions to be roughly ten-fold and 100-fold more informative than that of the protein coding genes. On a per locus basis UCEs and protein coding genes exhibited similar levels of phylogenetic informativeness. Our results suggest that UCEs offer enormous potential for resolving relationships across the percomorph tree of life.

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