Previous analyses of relations, divergence times, and diversification patterns among extant mammalian families have relied on supertree methods and local molecular clocks. We constructed a molecular supermatrix for mammalian families and analyzed these data with likelihood-based methods and relaxed molecular clocks. Phylogenetic analyses resulted in a robust phylogeny with better resolution than phylogenies from supertree methods. Relaxed clock analyses support the long-fuse model of diversification and highlight the importance of including multiple fossil calibrations that are spread across the tree. Molecular time trees and diversification analyses suggest important roles for the Cretaceous Terrestrial Revolution and Cretaceous-Paleogene (KPg) mass extinction in opening up ecospace that promoted interordinal and intraordinal diversification, respectively. By contrast, diversification analyses provide no support for the hypothesis concerning the delayed rise of present-day mammals during the Eocene Period.

A number of methods have been developed to infer differential rates of species diversification through time and among clades using time-calibrated phylogenetic trees. However, we lack a general framework that can delineate and quantify heterogeneous mixtures of dynamic processes within single phylogenies. I developed a method that can identify arbitrary numbers of time-varying diversification processes on phylogenies without specifying their locations in advance. The method uses reversible-jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo to move between model subspaces that vary in the number of distinct diversification regimes. The model assumes that changes in evolutionary regimes occur across the branches of phylogenetic trees under a compound Poisson process and explicitly accounts for rate variation through time and among lineages. Using simulated datasets, I demonstrate that the method can be used to quantify complex mixtures of time-dependent, diversity-dependent, and constant-rate diversification processes. I compared the performance of the method to the MEDUSA model of rate variation among lineages. As an empirical example, I analyzed the history of speciation and extinction during the radiation of modern whales. The method described here will greatly facilitate the exploration of macroevolutionary dynamics across large phylogenetic trees, which may have been shaped by heterogeneous mixtures of distinct evolutionary processes.

Far more species of organisms are found in the tropics than in temperate and polar regions, but the evolutionary and ecological causes of this pattern remain controversial. Tropical marine fish communities are much more diverse than cold-water fish communities found at higher latitudes, and several explanations for this latitudinal diversity gradient propose that warm reef environments serve as evolutionary 'hotspots' for species formation. Here we test the relationship between latitude, species richness and speciation rate across marine fishes. We assembled a time-calibrated phylogeny of all ray-finned fishes (31,526 tips, of which 11,638 had genetic data) and used this framework to describe the spatial dynamics of speciation in the marine realm. We show that the fastest rates of speciation occur in species-poor regions outside the tropics, and that high-latitude fish lineages form new species at much faster rates than their tropical counterparts. High rates of speciation occur in geographical regions that are characterized by low surface temperatures and high endemism. Our results reject a broad class of mechanisms under which the tropics serve as an evolutionary cradle for marine fish diversity and raise new questions about why the coldest oceans on Earth are present-day hotspots of species formation.

The uneven distribution of species richness is a fundamental and unexplained pattern of vertebrate biodiversity. Although species richness in groups like mammals, birds, or teleost fishes is often attributed to accelerated cladogenesis, we lack a quantitative conceptual framework for identifying and comparing the exceptional changes of tempo in vertebrate evolutionary history. We develop MEDUSA, a stepwise approach based upon the Akaike information criterion for detecting multiple shifts in birth and death rates on an incompletely resolved phylogeny. We apply MEDUSA incompletely to a diversity tree summarizing both evolutionary relationships and species richness of 44 major clades of jawed vertebrates. We identify 9 major changes in the tempo of gnathostome diversification; the most significant of these lies at the base of a clade that includes most of the coral-reef associated fishes as well as cichlids and perches. Rate increases also underlie several well recognized tetrapod radiations, including most modern birds, lizards and snakes, ostariophysan fishes, and most eutherian mammals. In addition, we find that large sections of the vertebrate tree exhibit nearly equal rates of origination and extinction, providing some of the first evidence from molecular data for the importance of faunal turnover in shaping biodiversity. Together, these results reveal living vertebrate biodiversity to be the product of volatile turnover punctuated by 6 accelerations responsible for >85% of all species as well as 3 slowdowns that have produced ''living fossils.'' In addition, by revealing the timing of the exceptional pulses of vertebrate diversification as well as the clades that experience them, our diversity tree provides a framework for evaluating particular causal hypotheses of vertebrate radiations.evolutionary radiation ͉ macroevolution ͉ phylogeny T he extremes of vertebrate richness have long fascinated evolutionary biologists (1, 2). Species richness of some groups, like teleosts, ostariophysans, birds, mammals, and frogs, is often attributed to accelerated diversification accompanying ecological adaptive radiation or the acquisition of key innovations (3). In contrast, the evolutionary stasis exhibited by many representatives of the sparest branches, such as tuataras, coelacanths, and the bowfin, has been attributed in part to historically low rates of cladogenesis (4, 5). However, the hypothesis that differential diversification rates explain vertebrate biodiversity has rarely been tested. It is possible that, with regard to species richness, some or many of the classic vertebrate radiations might not be exceptional at all. This is because simple models of lineage origination and extinction are expected to produce clades of varying sizes (6). Testing hypotheses about diversification rate at broad phylogenetic scales is challenging for at least 2 reasons. First, most comparative studies of diversity focus on patterns within major clades rather than across them (7-9). Second, most current diversification methods perf...

Several evolutionary theories predict that rates of morphological change should be positively associated with the rate at which new species arise. For example, the theory of punctuated equilibrium proposes that phenotypic change typically occurs in rapid bursts associated with speciation events. However, recent phylogenetic studies have found little evidence linking these processes in nature. Here we demonstrate that rates of species diversification are highly correlated with the rate of body size evolution across the 30,000 þ living species of ray-finned fishes that comprise the majority of vertebrate biological diversity. This coupling is a general feature of fish evolution and transcends vast differences in ecology and body-plan organization. Our results may reflect a widespread speciational mode of character change in living fishes. Alternatively, these findings are consistent with the hypothesis that phenotypic 'evolvability'-the capacity of organisms to evolve-shapes the dynamics of speciation through time at the largest phylogenetic scales.

Summary1. Understanding the dynamics of speciation, extinction and phenotypic evolution is a central challenge in evolutionary biology. Here, we present BAMMtools, an R package for the analysis and visualization of macroevolutionary dynamics on phylogenetic trees. BAMMtools is a companion package to BAMM, an open-source program for reversible-jump MCMC analyses of diversification and trait evolution. 2. Functions in BAMMtools operate directly on output from the BAMM program. The package is oriented towards reconstructing and visualizing changes in evolutionary rates through time and across clades in a Bayesian statistical framework. 3. BAMMtools enables users to extract credible sets of diversification shifts and to identify diversification histories with the maximum a posteriori probability. Users can compare the fit of alternative diversification models using Bayes factors and by directly comparing model posterior probabilities. 4. By providing a robust framework for quantifying uncertainty in macroevolutionary dynamics, BAMMtools will facilitate inference on the complex mixture of processes that have shaped the distribution of species and phenotypes across the tree of life.

Diversification rate is one of the most important metrics in macroecological and macroevolutionary studies. Here I demonstrate that diversification analyses can be misleading when researchers assume that diversity increases unbounded through time, as is typical in molecular phylogenetic studies. If clade diversity is regulated by ecological factors, then species richness may be independent of clade age and it may not be possible to infer the rate at which diversity arose. This has substantial consequences for the interpretation of many studies that have contrasted rates of diversification among clades and regions. Often, it is possible to estimate the total diversification experienced by a clade but not diversification rate itself. I show that the evidence for ecological limits on diversity in higher taxa is widespread. Finally, I explore the implications of ecological limits for a variety of ecological and evolutionary questions that involve inferences about speciation and extinction rates from phylogenetic data.

Species richness varies widely across the tree of life, and there is great interest in identifying ecological, geographic, and other factors that affect rates of species proliferation. Recent methods for explicitly modeling the relationships among character states, speciation rates, and extinction rates on phylogenetic trees- BiSSE, QuaSSE, GeoSSE, and related models-have been widely used to test hypotheses about character state-dependent diversification rates. Here, we document the disconcerting ease with which neutral traits are inferred to have statistically significant associations with speciation rate. We first demonstrate this unfortunate effect for a known model assumption violation: shifts in speciation rate associated with a character not included in the model. We further show that for many empirical phylogenies, characters simulated in the absence of state-dependent diversification exhibit an even higher Type I error rate, indicating that the method is susceptible to additional, unknown model inadequacies. For traits that evolve slowly, the root cause appears to be a statistical framework that does not require replicated shifts in character state and diversification. However, spurious associations between character state and speciation rate arise even for traits that lack phylogenetic signal, suggesting that phylogenetic pseudoreplication alone cannot fully explain the problem. The surprising severity of this phenomenon suggests that many trait-diversification relationships reported in the literature may not be real. More generally, we highlight the need for diagnosing and understanding the consequences of model inadequacy in phylogenetic comparative methods.