No abstract

Dispersal is a critically important process in the spread of invasive plants. Although knowledge of dispersal will be crucial to preventing the spread of invasive plants, little research has been performed within this context. Many important invasive or agricultural weeds disperse their seeds via tumbling, yet only one previously published paper investigated this dispersal mechanism. Field and wind tunnel experiments were conducted to quantify and model tumbling dispersal. We developed competing models for diffuse knapweed seed dispersal from wind tunnel experiments and compared predictions to data collected from a field site in Colorado. Seeds were retained in plants that had traveled hundreds to as much as 1,039 m (3,408 ft). Although neither model accurately predicted dispersal when compared with independent field data, surprisingly, seed retention with distance was somewhat better described as a linear process than as exponential decay. Wind tunnel trials showed no evidence that the number of seeds deposited per meter depended on plant size. Thus, fecundity might be a key factor determining seed dispersal distances; plants with higher fecundity might disperse seeds over longer distances than those with fewer seeds.

Species distribution models can be used to direct early detection of invasive species, if they include proxies for invasion pathways. Due to the dynamic nature of invasion, these models violate assumptions of stationarity across space and time. To compensate for issues of stationarity, we iteratively update regionalized species distribution models annually for European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar) to target early detection surveys for the USDA APHIS gypsy moth program. We defined regions based on the distances from the invasion spread front where shifts in variable importance occurred and included models for the non-quarantine portion of the state of Maine, a short-range region, an intermediate region, and a long-range region. We considered variables that represented potential gypsy moth movement pathways within each region, including transportation networks, recreational activities, urban characteristics, and household movement data originating from gypsy moth infested areas (U.S. Postal Service address forwarding data). We updated the models annually, linked the models to an early detection survey design, and validated the models for the following year using predicted risk at new positive detection locations. Human-assisted pathways data, such as address forwarding, became increasingly important predictors of gypsy moth detection in the intermediate-range geographic model as more predictor data accumulated over time (relative importance = 5.9%, 17.36%, and 35.76% for 2015, 2016, and 2018, respectively). Receiver operating curves showed increasing performance for iterative annual models (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.63, 0.76, and 0.84 for 2014, 2015, and 2016 models, respectively), and boxplots of predicted risk each year showed increasing accuracy and precision of following year positive detection locations. The inclusion of human-assisted pathway predictors combined with the strategy of iterative modeling brings significant advantages to targeting early detection of invasive species. We present the first published example of iterative species distribution modeling for invasive species in an operational context.

Field studies using glyphosate‐resistant corn (Zea mays L.), sugarbeet (Beta vulgaris L.), and spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were conducted at Scottsbluff, NE, Torrington, WY, and Fort Collins, CO, over 6 yr to evaluate weed population dynamics under glyphosate‐ and conventional herbicide–based weed control strategies. We report the response of common lambsquarters (Chenopodium album L.), wild buckwheat (Polygonum convolvulus L.), and all grasses combined to four management strategies imbedded in two crop rotations. There were no consistent or highly significant benefits from a diverse crop rotation versus continuous corn when weed control was considered. Rotating herbicide mode of action for general weed control provided no benefit above that provided by glyphosate at 0.8 kg acid equivalent (ae) ha−1 applied twice each year. There was no evidence that any weed species developed resistance to glyphosate. The most striking finding of these studies was the buildup of common lambsquarters and wild buckwheat that occurs when glyphosate is applied at 0.4 kg ae ha−1 twice each year. Such a low‐use‐rate approach is to be completely discouraged since it appears to enrich the gene pool for individuals that survive low rates of glyphosate. The continuing decline in the real cost of glyphosate should eliminate any legitimate reason for growers to consider using less than the full labeled rate of glyphosate. All treatments that included glyphosate at all three locations over 6 yr provided significantly better grass control than the nonglyphosate conventional treatments.

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) are mortality agents to multiple tree species throughout North America. Understanding spatiotemporal dynamics of these insects can assist management, prediction of outbreaks, and development of "real time" assessments of forest susceptibility incorporating insect population data. Here, dispersal of Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopk.) is estimated over four regions within Colorado and Wyoming from 1994 to 2010. Infestations mapped from aerial insect surveys are utilized as a proxy variable for Douglas-fir beetle (DFB) activity and analyzed via a novel GIS technique that co-locates infestations from adjacent years quantifying distances between them. Dispersal distances of DFB infestations were modeled with a cumulative Gaussian function and expressed as a standard dispersal distance (SDD), the distance at which 68% of infestations dispersed in a given flight season. Average values of SDD ranged from under 1 kilometer for the region of northwestern Colorado to over 2.5 kilometers for infestations in Wyoming. A statistically significant relationship was detected between SDD and infestation area in the parent year, suggesting that host depletion and density-dependent factors may influence dispersal. Findings can potentially provide insight for managers-namely, likelihood of DFB infestation increase for locations within two to five kilometers of an existing infestation.