Information on where species occur is an important component of conservation and management decisions, but knowledge of distributions is often coarse or incomplete. Species distribution models provide a tool for mapping habitat and can produce credible, defensible, and repeatable information with which to inform decisions. However, these models are sensitive to data inputs and methodological choices, making it important to assess the reliability and utility of model predictions. We provide a rubric that model developers can use to communicate a model's attributes and its appropriate uses. We emphasize the importance of tailoring model development and delivery to the species of interest and the intended use and the advantages of iterative modeling and validation. We highlight how species distribution models have been used to design surveys for new populations, inform spatial prioritization decisions for management actions, and support regulatory decision-making and compliance, tying these examples back to our model assessment rubric.
Rapidly detecting and responding to new invasive species and the spread of those that are already established is essential for reducing their potential threat to food production, the economy, and the environment. We describe a new spatial modeling platform that integrates mapping of phenology and climatic suitability in real-time to provide timely and comprehensive guidance for stakeholders needing to know both where and when invasive insect species could potentially invade the conterminous United States. The Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform serves as an open-source and relatively easy-to-parameterize decision support tool to help detect new invasive threats, schedule monitoring and management actions, optimize biological control, and predict potential impacts on agricultural production. DDRP uses a process-based modeling approach in which degree-days and temperature stress are calculated daily and accumulate over time to model phenology and climatic suitability, respectively. Outputs include predictions of the number of completed generations, life stages present, dates of phenological events, and climatically suitable areas based on two levels of climate stress. Species parameter values can be derived from laboratory and field studies or estimated through an additional modeling step. DDRP is written entirely in R, making it flexible and extensible, and capitalizes on multiple R packages to generate gridded and graphical outputs. We illustrate the DDRP modeling platform and the process of model parameterization using two invasive insect species as example threats to United States agriculture: the light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana, and the small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis. We then discuss example applications of DDRP as a decision support tool, review its potential limitations and sources of model error, and outline some ideas for future improvements to the platform.
Species distribution models can be used to direct early detection of invasive species, if they include proxies for invasion pathways. Due to the dynamic nature of invasion, these models violate assumptions of stationarity across space and time. To compensate for issues of stationarity, we iteratively update regionalized species distribution models annually for European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar) to target early detection surveys for the USDA APHIS gypsy moth program. We defined regions based on the distances from the invasion spread front where shifts in variable importance occurred and included models for the non-quarantine portion of the state of Maine, a short-range region, an intermediate region, and a long-range region. We considered variables that represented potential gypsy moth movement pathways within each region, including transportation networks, recreational activities, urban characteristics, and household movement data originating from gypsy moth infested areas (U.S. Postal Service address forwarding data). We updated the models annually, linked the models to an early detection survey design, and validated the models for the following year using predicted risk at new positive detection locations. Human-assisted pathways data, such as address forwarding, became increasingly important predictors of gypsy moth detection in the intermediate-range geographic model as more predictor data accumulated over time (relative importance = 5.9%, 17.36%, and 35.76% for 2015, 2016, and 2018, respectively). Receiver operating curves showed increasing performance for iterative annual models (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.63, 0.76, and 0.84 for 2014, 2015, and 2016 models, respectively), and boxplots of predicted risk each year showed increasing accuracy and precision of following year positive detection locations. The inclusion of human-assisted pathway predictors combined with the strategy of iterative modeling brings significant advantages to targeting early detection of invasive species. We present the first published example of iterative species distribution modeling for invasive species in an operational context.
Periodic introductions of the Asian subspecies of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar asiatica Vnukovskij and Lymantria dispar japonica Motschulsky, in North America are threatening forests and interrupting foreign trade. Although Asian gypsy moth has similar morphology to that of European and North American gypsy moth, it has several traits that make it a greater threat, the most important being the flight capability of females. Asian gypsy moth is not yet established in North America; however, infestations have been detected multiple times in Canada and the United States. To facilitate detection and eradication efforts, we evaluated the effect of a range of temperatures on development time, survivorship, and fertility of eight populations of Asian gypsy moth. There were significant impacts of temperature and population on these life history characteristics. The larval developmental rate increased with temperature until it reached an optimum at 29 °C. Larvae experienced significant molting problems at the highest and lowest temperatures tested (10 °C and 30 °C). At 30 °C, female fitness was markedly compromised, as evidenced by reduced fecundity and fertility. This suggests that development and survival of Asian gypsy moth may be limited by summer temperature extremes in the Southern United States. We also determined the degree-day requirements for two critical life stages and two populations of Asian gypsy moth, which represent the extremes in latitude, to predict the timing for biopesticide application and adult trap deployment. Our data will benefit pest managers in developing management strategies, pest risk assessments, and timing for implementation of management tactics.
In response to the National Invasive Species Council's 2016-2018 Management Plan, this paper provides guidance on applying target analysis as part of a comprehensive framework for the early detection of and rapid response to invasive species (EDRR). Target analysis is a strategic approach for detecting one or more invasive species at a specific locality and time, using a particular method and/or technology(ies). Target analyses, which are employed across a wide range of disciplines, are intended to increase the likelihood of detection of a known target in order to maximize survey effectiveness and costefficiency. Although target analyses are not yet a standard approach to invasive species management, some federal agencies are employing target analyses in principle and/or in part to improve EDRR capacities. These initiatives can provide a foundation for a more standardized and comprehensive approach to target analyses. Guidance is provided for improving computational information. Federal agencies and their partners would benefit from a concerted effort to collect the information necessary to perform rigorous target analyses and make it available through open access platforms.
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