Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure, and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. In 2018, the U.S. National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) released a suite of ‘Pheno Forecast’ map products relevant to science and management. The Pheno Forecasts include real-time maps and short-term forecasts of insect pest activity at management-relevant spatial and temporal resolutions and are based on accumulated temperature thresholds associated with critical life-cycle stages of economically important pests. Pheno Forecasts indicate, for a specified day, the status of the insect’s target life-cycle stage in real time across the contiguous United States. The maps are available for 12 pest species including the invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire [Coleoptera: Buprestidae]), hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand), and gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar Linnaeus [Lepidoptera: Erebidae]). Preliminary validation based on in-situ observations for hemlock woolly adelgid egg and nymph stages in 2018 indicated the maps to be ≥93% accurate depending on phenophase. Since their release in early 2018, these maps have been adopted by tree care specialists and foresters across the United States. Using a consultative mode of engagement, USA-NPN staff have continuously sought input and critique of the maps and delivery from end users. Based on feedback received, maps have been expanded and modified to include additional species, improved descriptions of the phenophase event of interest, and e-mail-based notifications to support management decisions.
Periodic introductions of the Asian subspecies of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar asiatica Vnukovskij and Lymantria dispar japonica Motschulsky, in North America are threatening forests and interrupting foreign trade. Although Asian gypsy moth has similar morphology to that of European and North American gypsy moth, it has several traits that make it a greater threat, the most important being the flight capability of females. Asian gypsy moth is not yet established in North America; however, infestations have been detected multiple times in Canada and the United States. To facilitate detection and eradication efforts, we evaluated the effect of a range of temperatures on development time, survivorship, and fertility of eight populations of Asian gypsy moth. There were significant impacts of temperature and population on these life history characteristics. The larval developmental rate increased with temperature until it reached an optimum at 29 °C. Larvae experienced significant molting problems at the highest and lowest temperatures tested (10 °C and 30 °C). At 30 °C, female fitness was markedly compromised, as evidenced by reduced fecundity and fertility. This suggests that development and survival of Asian gypsy moth may be limited by summer temperature extremes in the Southern United States. We also determined the degree-day requirements for two critical life stages and two populations of Asian gypsy moth, which represent the extremes in latitude, to predict the timing for biopesticide application and adult trap deployment. Our data will benefit pest managers in developing management strategies, pest risk assessments, and timing for implementation of management tactics.
Management of the European gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar dispar (Linnaeus)] in North America has benefited from more than a century of research. The East Asian strains of the gypsy moth, however, bring new challenges including multiple subspecies (Lymantria dispar asiatica Vnukovskij and Lymantria dispar japonica Motschulsky), broad distributions across heterogeneous habitats, and a lack of data on the variation in the phenology of source populations, which may affect risk. To address these issues, published phenology parameters for eight populations of Asian gypsy moth were used to develop eight strain-specific agent-based phenological models. These models were applied to 47 ports in East Asia where the Asian gypsy moth is native, and output was compared with available trap data to assess the role of interpopulation variation in phenological parameters in predicting moth flight among varied locations, assess variation in the performance of models among years, and assess the importance of modeling phenology using parameters from a ‘local’ moth population. Variation in phenological parameters among the eight populations yielded variation in predicted flight times among the 47 ports analyzed, and the use of ‘local’ populations did not generally improve model fit. Model accuracy varied substantially among ports and among years within some ports. The larva-to-adult agent-based models described here have utility in estimating flight periods for some ports in their current form, but variation in model quality across the landscape suggests that there is potential for unsampled and unparameterized moth populations and factors that remain to be quantified.
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