No abstract

Abstract. The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) is the sole interior Greenlandic ice stream. Fast flow initiates near the summit dome, and the ice stream terminates approximately 1000 km downstream in three large outlet glaciers that calve into the Greenland Sea. To better understand this important system, in the summer of 2012 we drilled a 67 m firn core and conducted ground-based radio-echo sounding (RES) and active-source seismic surveys at a site approximately 150 km downstream from the onset of streaming flow (NEGIS firn core, 75 • 37.61 N, 35 • 56.49 W). The site is representative of the upper part of the ice stream, while also being in a crevasse-free area for safe surface operations.Annual cycles were observed for insoluble dust, sodium and ammonium concentrations and for electrolytic conductivity, allowing a seasonally resolved chronology covering the past 400 yr. Annual layer thicknesses averaged 0.11 m ice equivalent (i.e.) for the period 1607-2011, although accumulation varied between 0.08 and 0.14 m i.e., likely due to flowrelated changes in surface topography. Tracing of RES layers from the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) ice core site shows that the ice at NEGIS preserves a climatic record of at least the past 51 kyr. We demonstrate that deep ice core drilling in this location can provide a reliable Holocene and late-glacial climate record, as well as helping to constrain the past dynamics and ice-lithosphere interactions of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

ABSTRACT. We analyze the internal stratigraphy in radio-echo sounding data of the northeast Greenland ice stream to infer past and present ice dynamics. In the upper reaches of the ice stream, we propose that shear-margin steady-state folds in internal reflecting horizons (

The widespread retreat of mountain glaciers is a striking emblem of recent climate change. Yet mass-balance observations indicate that many glaciers are out of equilibrium with current climate, meaning that observed retreats do not show the full response to warming. This is a fundamental consequence of glacier dynamics: mountain glaciers typically have multidecadal response timescales, and so their response lags centennial-scale climate trends. A substantial difference between transient and equilibrium glacier length persists throughout the warming period; we refer to this length difference as 'disequilibrium'. Forcing idealized glacier geometries with gradual warming shows that the glacier response timescale fundamentally governs the evolution of disequilibrium. Comparing a hierarchy of different glacier models suggests that accurate estimates of ice thickness and climatology, which control the timescale, are more important than higher order ice dynamics for capturing disequilibrium. Current glacier disequilibrium has previously been estimated for a selection of individual glaciers; our idealized modeling shows that sustained disequilibrium is a fundamental response of glacier dynamics, and is robust across a range of glacier geometries. This implies that many mountain glaciers are committed to additional, kilometer-scale retreats, even without further warming. Disequilibrium must also be addressed when calibrating glacier models used for climate reconstructions and projections of retreat in response to future warming.

Abstract. The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) is the sole interior Greenlandic ice stream. Fast flow initiates near the summit dome, and the ice stream terminates approximately 1000 km downstream in three large outlet glaciers that calve into the Greenland Sea. To better understand this important system, in the summer of 2012 we drilled a 67 m firn core and conducted ground-based radio-echo sounding (RES) and active-source seismic surveys at a site approximately 150 km downstream from the onset of streaming flow (NEGIS firn core, 75° 37.61' N, 35°56.49' W). The site is representative of the upper part of the ice stream, while also being in a crevasse-free area for safe surface operations. Annual cycles were observed for insoluble dust, sodium and ammonium concentrations and for electrolytic conductivity, allowing a seasonally resolved chronology covering the past 400 yr. Annual layer thicknesses averaged 0.11 m ice equivalent (i.e.) for the period 1607–2011, although accumulation varied between 0.08 and 0.14 m i.e., likely due to flow-related changes in surface topography. Tracing of RES layers from the NGRIP ice core site shows that the ice at NEGIS preserves a climatic record of at least the past 51 kyr. We demonstrate that a deep ice core drilling in this location can provide a reliable Holocene and late-glacial climate record, as well as helping to constrain the past dynamics and ice-lithosphere interactions of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

No abstract

Abstract. Around the world, small ice caps and glaciers have been losing mass and retreating since the start of the industrial era. Estimates are that this has contributed approximately 30 % of the observed sea-level rise over the same period. It is important to understand the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic components of this mass loss. One recent study concluded that the best estimate of the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss over the industrial era was only 25 % of the total, implying a predominantly natural cause. Here we show that the anthropogenic fraction of the total mass loss of a given glacier depends only on the magnitudes and rates of the natural and anthropogenic components of climate change and on the glacier's response time. We consider climate change over the past millennium using synthetic scenarios, palaeoclimate reconstructions, numerical climate simulations, and instrumental observations. We use these climate histories to drive a glacier model that can represent a wide range of glacier response times, and we evaluate the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss relative to the observed mass loss. The slow cooling over the preceding millennium followed by the rapid anthropogenic warming of the industrial era means that, over the full range of response times for small ice caps and glaciers, the central estimate of the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed mass loss. The anthropogenic magnitude may exceed 100 % in the event that, without anthropogenic climate forcing, glaciers would otherwise have been gaining mass. Our results bring assessments of the attribution of glacier mass loss into alignment with assessments of others aspects of climate change, such as global-mean temperature. Furthermore, these results reinforce the scientific and public understanding of centennial-scale glacier retreat as an unambiguous consequence of human activity.

Abstract. Around the world, small ice caps and glaciers have been losing mass and retreating during the industrial era. Estimates are that this has contributed approximately 30 % of the observed sea-level rise over the same period. It is important to understand the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic components of this mass loss. One recent study concluded that the best estimate of the anthropogenic contribution over the industrial era was only 25 %, implying a predominantly natural cause. Here we show that the fraction of the anthropogenic contribution to the total mass loss of a given glacier depends only on the magnitudes and rates of the natural and anthropogenic components of climate change, and on the glacier's response time. We consider climate change over the past millennium using synthetic scenarios, paleoclimate reconstructions, numerical climate simulations, and instrumental observations. We use these climate histories to drive a glacier model that can represent a wide range of glacier response times to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to glacier mass loss. The slow cooling over the preceding millennium, followed by the rapid anthropogenic warming of the industrial era means that, over the full range of response times for small ice caps and glaciers, the central estimate of the anthropogenic component of the mass loss is essentially 100 %. Our results bring assessments of attribution of glacier mass loss into alignment with assessments of others aspects of climate change, such as global-mean temperature. Furthermore, these results reinforce the scientific and public understanding of centennial-scale glacier retreat as an unambiguous consequence of human activity.