A dramatic increase in criminal violence in Mexico since 2007 has resulted in an estimated 60,000-70,000 ''additional'' homicides, often of an especially brutal form, related to drug trafficking and other organized-crime activities. This violence has been accompanied by a steep increase in rates of kidnapping and extortion and has targeted participants in the narcotics trade as well as government officials, journalists, and civil society activists. Despite the magnitude of the violence and enormous public concern about it, scholarly literature on this topic has been scant. This issue offers some of the most promising analyses conducted thus far on the trends in violence and their causes, focusing largely, though not exclusively, on the role Mexico's government has played in the business of illegal drugs and the violence that accompanies it. In this introduction, we discuss the challenge of deriving reliable statistics on drug-related violence, its spatial and temporal patterns, prevailing explanations, its relationship to organized crime in general, and differences between this violence and substate political violence.
OverviewFollowing its 1910 revolution and the postrevolutionary political violence of the 1920s and 1930s, Mexico underwent a steady decline in violent crime, especially
Research Summary
Widespread protests and demands for accountability in the wake of broadly publicized police killings of unarmed civilians coincided with the marked upturn in homicide levels, especially in large U.S. cities, in 2015. Many observers, including prominent political figures, claimed that de‐policing caused the homicide rate to rise: Fearing increased legal liability and publicity, the police employed less proactive enforcement and made fewer arrests, producing an increase in homicide levels. We use structural equation modeling to estimate the simultaneous relationship between arrest and homicide rates between 2010 and 2015 in 53 large cities. We find no evidence of an effect of arrest rates on city homicide rates for any offense category for any year in this period, including 2015, the year of the spike in homicide levels.
Policy Implications
The results of our analysis reveal that declining rates of arrest did not produce the rise in homicide levels. But arrests, the chief formal reaction to crime, can play an important supporting role in crime prevention. Ample research findings have demonstrated the effectiveness of proactive policing practices, such as targeted patrol, in reducing crime rates. The success of such tactics depends, in turn, on citizens’ belief that criminal offenders face an appreciable risk of arrest. It is equally important, however, that residents of communities that have experienced unwarranted police violence believe that law enforcement is fairly applied. Lack of trust and confidence in the police militates against crime prevention as a co‐production of police and community and may promote violence as a form of self‐help.
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