Standard practices in systems engineering do not take full advantage of data collected and organized by those performing risk management, program performance measurement, and trade study management tasks. Adjustments to existing systems engineering practices, presented in this paper, allow integration of these separate tasks in a way that significantly enhances program management's ability to manage customer expectations and reduce the cost of development. This paper presents real‐world examples of extensions to risk assessment practices that allow risks to be rolled‐up to program performance measures in addition to a traditional work breakdown structure. Integration of existing risk abatement planning tasks are explained in sufficient detail to show how key decisions embedded in risk abatement plans are included on the trade study list and evaluated in terms of program performance measures.
The San Antonio River Walk is considered a unique tourist attraction as well as an urban rejuvenation catalyst for San Antonio, Texas. This utilization of the mile‐long horseshoe bend in the downtown area of San Antonio is as successful and imaginative as can be found in the United States. Testimony is very strong from San Antonio voters and outside visitors of the great social and economic value of the River Walk. This overwhelming success has led to plans for expansion of the present River Walk. The River Walk expansion decision should not be evaluated merely on a benefit‐cost ratio. It has become the recommendation of the Water Resources Council that intangible attributes such as recreational values and social impacts should be considered as well as tangible attributes such as cost. This prevailing attitude has highlighted the application of decision analysis techniques with multiattribute utility ratings. Decision analysis is a systematic solution procedure which can be used to crystallize a complicated decision problem into manageable subproblems by ranking the decision alternatives in accordance with cardinal utility values attached to their consequences. Recent advances in multiattribute utility theory allow a decision maker to weigh utility assessment over tangible and intangible attributes according to their relative importance. This insures that the intangible attributes will receive due consideration in the final decision‐making.
Bayesian decision theory provides a procedure for the use of subjective data in a decision-making situation related to urban water resources development. This procedure is effectual in pursuing a set of goals and in transforming individual or group indecisiveness into satisfactory decisions. This approach is highlighted due to its capability to incorporate seemingly unquantifiable, abstract factors into the decision-making process. It is realized that the soliciting of expert and general public opinion is indispensable in making choices for the welfare of the general public from alternative courses of action under uncertainty. The analysis presented here considers engineering alternatives, quality, quantity, cost and the intangible public response in an integrated effort for the selection of optimum strategies in urban water resources development, (KEY TERMS: Bayesian decision theory; Delphi method; Utility theory; probability assessments)
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