SUBJECTIVE DECISION‐MAKING FOR URBAN WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT¹

Abstract

Bayesian decision theory provides a procedure for the use of subjective data in a decision-making situation related to urban water resources development. This procedure is effectual in pursuing a set of goals and in transforming individual or group indecisiveness into satisfactory decisions. This approach is highlighted due to its capability to incorporate seemingly unquantifiable, abstract factors into the decision-making process. It is realized that the soliciting of expert and general public opinion is indispensable in making choices for the welfare of the general public from alternative courses of action under uncertainty. The analysis presented here considers engineering alternatives, quality, quantity, cost and the intangible public response in an integrated effort for the selection of optimum strategies in urban water resources development, (KEY TERMS: Bayesian decision theory; Delphi method; Utility theory; probability assessments)