[1] Every summer, a large area (15,000 km 2 on average) over the Texas-Louisiana shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico turns hypoxic due to decay of organic matter that is primarily derived from nutrient inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River System. Interannual variability in the size of the hypoxic zone is large. The 2008 Action Plan put forth by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force, an alliance of multiple state and federal agencies and tribes, calls for a reduction of the size of the hypoxic zone through nutrient management in the watershed. Comprehensive models help build mechanistic understanding of the processes underlying hypoxia formation and variability and are thus indispensable tools for devising efficient nutrient reduction strategies and for building reasonable expectations as to what responses can be expected for a given nutrient reduction.Here we present such a model, evaluate its hypoxia simulations against monitoring observations, and assess the sensitivity of the hypoxia simulations to model resolution, variations in sediment oxygen consumption, and choice of physical horizontal boundary conditions. We find that hypoxia simulations on the shelf are very sensitive to the parameterization of sediment oxygen consumption, a result of the fact that hypoxic conditions are restricted to a relatively thin layer above the bottom over most of the shelf. We show that the strength of vertical stratification is an important predictor of dissolved oxygen concentration in bottom waters and that modification of physical horizontal boundary conditions can have a large effect on hypoxia simulations because it can affect stratification strength.Citation: Fennel, K., J. Hu, A. Laurent, M. Marta-Almeida, and R. Hetland (2013), Sensitivity of hypoxia predictions for the northern Gulf of Mexico to sediment oxygen consumption and model nesting,

The continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico receives high dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus loads from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers. The nutrient load results in high primary production in the river plumes and contributes to the development of hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf in summer. While phytoplankton growth is considered to be typically nitrogen-limited in marine waters, phosphorus limitation has been observed in this region during periods of peak river discharge in spring and early summer. Here we investigate the presence, spatio-temporal distribution and implications of phosphorus limitation in the plume region using a circulation model of the northern Gulf of Mexico coupled to a multi-nutrient ecosystem model. Results from a 7-yr simulation (2001–2007) compare well with several sources of observations and suggest that phosphorus limitation develops every year between the Mississippi and Atchafalaya deltas. Model simulations show that phosphorus limitation results in a delay and westward shift of a fraction of river-stimulated primary production. The consequence is a reduced flux of particulate organic matter to the sediment near the Mississippi delta, but slightly enhanced fluxes west of Atchafalaya Bay. Simulations with altered river phosphate concentrations (±50%) show that significant variation in the spatial extent of phosphorus limitation (±40% in July) results from changes in phosphate load

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Abstract.A three-dimensional (3-D) physicalbiogeochemical coupled model was applied to explore the mechanisms controlling the dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics and bottom hypoxia during summer in the Pearl River estuary (PRE). By using the numerical oxygen tracers, we proposed a new method (namely the physical modulation method) to quantify the contributions of boundary conditions and each source and sink process occurring in local and adjacent waters to the DO conditions. A mass balance analysis of DO based on the physical modulation method indicated that the DO conditions at the bottom layer were mainly controlled by the source and sink processes, among which the sediment oxygen demand (SOD) at the water-sediment interface and the re-aeration at the air-sea interface were the two primary processes determining the spatial extent and duration of bottom hypoxia in the PRE. The SOD could cause a significant decrease in the bottom DO concentrations (averaged over July-August 2006) by over 4 mg L −1 on the shelf off the Modaomen sub-estuary, leading to the formation of a high-frequency zone of hypoxia (HFZ). However, the hypoxia that occurred in the HFZ was intermittent and distributed in a small area due to the combined effects of re-aeration and photosynthesis, which behaved as sources for DO and offset a portion of the DO consumed by SOD. The bottom DO concentrations to the west of the lower Lingdingyang Bay (i.e. the western shoal near Qi'ao Island) were also largely affected by high SOD, but there was no hypoxia occurring there because of the influence of re-aeration. Specifically, re-aeration could lead to an increase in the bottom DO concentrations by ∼ 4.8 mg L −1 to the west of the lower Lingdingyang Bay. The re-aeration led to a strong vertical DO gradient between the surface and the lower layers. As a result, the majority (∼ 89 %) of DO supplemented by re-aeration was transported to the lower layers through vertical diffusion and ∼ 28 % reached the bottom eventually. Additional numerical experiments showed that turning off re-aeration could lead to an expansion of the hypoxic area from 237 to 2203 km 2 and result in persistent hypoxia (hypoxic frequency > 80 %) to the west of the lower Lingdingyang Bay. Compared to re-aeration and SOD, photosynthesis and water column respiration had relatively small impacts on the DO conditions; turning off these two processes increased the hypoxic area to 591 km 2 . In summary, our study explicitly elucidated the interactive impacts of physical and biogeochemical processes on the DO dynamics in the PRE, which is critical to understanding hypoxia in this shallow and river-dominated estuarine system.

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Abstract. In summer, the Pearl River estuary (PRE) experiences hypoxia, largely driven by the high input of fresh water with low dissolved oxygen (DO), abundant nutrients and particulate organic carbon from the Pearl River network. In this study, we used a well-validated physical–biogeochemical model together with a DO species-tracing method to study the responses of hypoxia and oxygen dynamics to the anthropogenic perturbations of riverine inputs (i.e. DO, nutrients, and particulate organic carbon) in July–August 2006. Model results showed that hypoxia in the PRE was most sensitive to riverine inputs of particulate organic carbon, followed by DO concentrations and nutrients. Specifically, a 50 % decrease (increase) in riverine input of particulate organic carbon led to a 47 % decrease (64 % increase) in hypoxic area, with the sediment oxygen demand and water column production being the two most important processes contributing to changes in DO concentration. Changes in the riverine inputs of DO and nutrients had little impact on the simulated hypoxia because of the buffering effects of re-aeration (DO fluxes across the air–sea interface); i.e. the re-aeration responded to the changes in surface apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) associated with river-induced variations of oxygen source and sink processes. The PRE features shallow waters (with averaged depth of 10 m) in which oxygen provided by the re-aeration could penetrate to bottom waters via vertical diffusion and largely offset the changes in DO contributed by other oxygen source and sink processes. This study highlights the importance of re-aeration in reducing hypoxia variability in shallow estuaries.

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