[1] Every summer, a large area (15,000 km 2 on average) over the Texas-Louisiana shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico turns hypoxic due to decay of organic matter that is primarily derived from nutrient inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River System. Interannual variability in the size of the hypoxic zone is large. The 2008 Action Plan put forth by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force, an alliance of multiple state and federal agencies and tribes, calls for a reduction of the size of the hypoxic zone through nutrient management in the watershed. Comprehensive models help build mechanistic understanding of the processes underlying hypoxia formation and variability and are thus indispensable tools for devising efficient nutrient reduction strategies and for building reasonable expectations as to what responses can be expected for a given nutrient reduction.Here we present such a model, evaluate its hypoxia simulations against monitoring observations, and assess the sensitivity of the hypoxia simulations to model resolution, variations in sediment oxygen consumption, and choice of physical horizontal boundary conditions. We find that hypoxia simulations on the shelf are very sensitive to the parameterization of sediment oxygen consumption, a result of the fact that hypoxic conditions are restricted to a relatively thin layer above the bottom over most of the shelf. We show that the strength of vertical stratification is an important predictor of dissolved oxygen concentration in bottom waters and that modification of physical horizontal boundary conditions can have a large effect on hypoxia simulations because it can affect stratification strength.Citation: Fennel, K., J. Hu, A. Laurent, M. Marta-Almeida, and R. Hetland (2013), Sensitivity of hypoxia predictions for the northern Gulf of Mexico to sediment oxygen consumption and model nesting,

The continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico experiences expansive seasonal hypoxic conditions and eutrophication‐driven acidification in bottom waters. Rising surface ocean temperatures, freshwater and nutrient inputs, and atmospheric CO2 will further exacerbate these conditions. Using a high‐resolution, regional circulation‐biogeochemical model, we simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of oxygen and inorganic carbon in the northern Gulf of Mexico under present and a projected future (2100) climate state. Results indicate a modest expansion of the hypoxic zone, but more severe hypoxia and greater exposure to prolonged hypoxic conditions. The main drivers underlying these changes are a reduction in oxygen solubility (accounting for 60–74% of the change) and increased stratification (accounting for less than 40%). pH is projected to decrease across the shelf with lowest values in hypoxic waters where aragonite saturation will approach the saturation limit. In the model simulations, acidification is primarily driven by atmospheric and offshore CO2 levels, while the enhancement in stratification only accounts for 7% or less of the total change in pH. Decreased buffering capacity and increased stratification in the future will enhance respiration‐induced acidification (i.e., a decrease in bottom water pH by respired CO2), which will amplify the climate‐induced acidification. According to the model, the magnitude of future changes varies significantly from year to year. The largest effects are simulated in years with large freshwater discharge and upwelling‐favorable winds.

Abstract. The Louisiana shelf, in the northern Gulf of Mexico, receives large amounts of freshwater and nutrients from the Mississippi–Atchafalaya river system. These river inputs contribute to widespread bottom-water hypoxia every summer. In this study, we use a physical–biogeochemical model that explicitly simulates oxygen sources and sinks on the Louisiana shelf to identify the key mechanisms controlling hypoxia development. First, we validate the model simulation against observed dissolved oxygen concentrations, primary production, water column respiration, and sediment oxygen consumption. In the model simulation, heterotrophy is prevalent in shelf waters throughout the year, except near the mouths of the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers, where primary production exceeds respiratory oxygen consumption during June and July. During this time, efflux of oxygen to the atmosphere, driven by photosynthesis and surface warming, becomes a significant oxygen sink. A substantial fraction of primary production occurs below the pycnocline in summer. We investigate whether this primary production below the pycnocline is mitigating the development of hypoxic conditions with the help of a sensitivity experiment where we disable biological processes in the water column (i.e., primary production and water column respiration). With this experiment we show that below-pycnocline primary production reduces the spatial extent of hypoxic bottom waters only slightly. Our results suggest that the combination of physical processes (advection and vertical diffusion) and sediment oxygen consumption largely determine the spatial extent and dynamics of hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf.

Nutrient inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River system into the northern Gulf of Mexico promote high phytoplankton production and lead to high respiration rates. Respiration coupled with water column stratification results in seasonal summer hypoxia in bottom waters on the shelf. In addition to consuming oxygen, respiration produces carbon dioxide (CO2), thus lowering the pH and acidifying bottom waters. Here we present a high‐resolution biogeochemical model simulating this eutrophication‐driven acidification and investigate the dominant underlying processes. The model shows the recurring development of an extended area of acidified bottom waters in summer on the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf that coincides with hypoxic waters. Not reported before, acidified waters are confined to a thin bottom boundary layer where the production of CO2 by benthic metabolic processes is dominant. Despite a reduced saturation state, acidified waters remain supersaturated with respect to aragonite.

The continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico receives high dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus loads from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers. The nutrient load results in high primary production in the river plumes and contributes to the development of hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf in summer. While phytoplankton growth is considered to be typically nitrogen-limited in marine waters, phosphorus limitation has been observed in this region during periods of peak river discharge in spring and early summer. Here we investigate the presence, spatio-temporal distribution and implications of phosphorus limitation in the plume region using a circulation model of the northern Gulf of Mexico coupled to a multi-nutrient ecosystem model. Results from a 7-yr simulation (2001–2007) compare well with several sources of observations and suggest that phosphorus limitation develops every year between the Mississippi and Atchafalaya deltas. Model simulations show that phosphorus limitation results in a delay and westward shift of a fraction of river-stimulated primary production. The consequence is a reduced flux of particulate organic matter to the sediment near the Mississippi delta, but slightly enhanced fluxes west of Atchafalaya Bay. Simulations with altered river phosphate concentrations (±50%) show that significant variation in the spatial extent of phosphorus limitation (±40% in July) results from changes in phosphate load

The Louisiana shelf (LA shelf) in the northern Gulf of Mexico experiences hypoxic conditions every summer due to the combination of eutrophication and strong water column stratification. Here we use a three-dimensional circulation model coupled with a simple oxygen model to examine the physical controls on hypoxia generation on the LA shelf. The model assumes a constant oxygen utilization rate in the water column and a sediment oxygen consumption rate that depends on the bottom water oxygen concentration and temperature. Despite its simplicity, the model reproduces the observed variability of dissolved oxygen and hypoxia on the LA shelf, highlighting the importance of physical processes. Model results demonstrate that both river discharge and wind forcing have a strong effect on the distribution of the river plume and stratification, and thereby on bottom dissolved oxygen concentrations and hypoxia formation on the LA shelf. The seasonal cycle of hypoxia is relatively insensitive to the seasonal variability in river discharge, but the time-integrated hypoxic area is very sensitive to the overall magnitude of river discharge. Changes in wind speed have the greatest effect on the simulated seasonal cycle of hypoxia and hypoxic duration, while changes in wind direction strongly influence the geographic distribution of hypoxia. Given that our simple oxygen model essentially reproduces the evolution of hypoxia simulated with a full biogeochemical model and that physical processes largely determine the magnitude and distribution of hypoxia, a full biogeochemical model might not be necessary for short-term hypoxia forecasting.

A large hypoxic zone forms every summer on the Texas-Louisiana Shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico due to nutrient and freshwater inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River System. Efforts are underway to reduce the extent of hypoxic conditions through reductions in river nutrient inputs, but the response of hypoxia to such nutrient load reductions is difficult to predict because biological responses are confounded by variability in physical processes. The objective of this study is to identify the major physical model aspects that matter for hypoxia simulation and prediction. In order to do so, we compare three different circulation models (ROMS, FVCOM, and NCOM) implemented for the northern Gulf of Mexico, all coupled to the same simple oxygen model, with observations and against each other. By using a highly simplified oxygen model, we eliminate the potentially confounding effects of a full biogeochemical model and can isolate the effects of physical features. In a systematic assessment, we found that (1) model-tomodel differences in bottom water temperatures result in differences in simulated hypoxia because temperature influences the uptake rate of oxygen by the sediments (an important oxygen sink in this system), (2) vertical stratification does not explain model-to-model differences in hypoxic conditions in a straightforward way, and (3) the thickness of the bottom boundary layer, which sets the thickness of the hypoxic layer in all three models, is key to determining the likelihood of a model to generate hypoxic conditions. These results imply that hypoxic area, the commonly used metric in the northern Gulf which ignores hypoxic layer thickness, is insufficient for assessing a model's ability to accurately simulate hypoxia, and that hypoxic volume needs to be considered as well. Key Points:Model intercomparison of three hypoxia models of the northern Gulf of Mexico is presented Bottom water temperature and bottom boundary layer thickness are important for hypoxia simulation Overall stratification strength does not explain model-to-model differences in hypoxic conditions Supporting Information:Supporting Information S1

– The objectives of this paper are to describe the fish assemblages in French reservoirs and to relate them to the sites' characteristics. The results of 43 fishing surveys were collected and completed with environmental descriptors. Fish assemblages differ between salmonids‐dominated mountain sites and lowland ones. The latter show higher species diversity and a distinction between rheophilic‐ and limnophilic‐type communities. This distinction can be explained by the reservoir age, location in the catchment and depth. The response of fish communities to these variables was investigated by canonical correspondence analysis. It shows that rheophilic species are typically abundant in upper basin, deep and recently created reservoirs. The fish community response to the aging process corresponds to an addition of lowland standing waters species and an extinction of the native riverine ones. The structuring role of the sites' depth, location and age is discussed, considering their relationship with the water body trophic status.