The main goal of this paper is to detect the mechanisms that should rationally stimulate the decision making-policies of the European Central Bank (ECB). This is carried out under the framework of theoretical principles of interest rate rules. Firstly, we deduce a set of logically advisable guidelines for the strategy actually developed by this central bank. Then we contrast a wide set of hypotheses with reference to those variables the ECB takes into account on deciding its monetary policy, with a flexible treatment regarding the number of months of advance or delay in the explanatory variables. The results lead us to the conclusion that the ECB, besides adopting a smooth strategy, especially bears in mind the expected core inflation rate, with a reaction coefficient adjusted to that initially proposed by Taylor. The economic growth rate, though it has a significant positive coefficient, matters relatively little and is backward looking. Finally, we evaluate up to what point the behaviour of the ECB is assimilative to an inflation targeting framework, solving this question affirmatively.
ResumenLos bancos centrales pueden adoptar un comportamiento asimétrico cuando establecen los tipos de interés a corto plazo. Esta posibilidad existe si la autoridad monetaria asume una función de preferencias asimétrica o si la estructura económica presenta una curva de Phillips no lineal. En tal caso, el banco central responde con desigual intensidad ante las desviaciones positivas de la inflación respecto de su objetivo, que ante desviaciones negativas. Lo mismo cabría esperar de las respuestas ante las desviaciones de
ResumenEn un contexto de libre entrada analizamos los cambios que se producen en el excedente del consumidor y en el bienestar social, así como en las demás condiciones del equilibrio, cuando entra un competidor en un mercado monopolístico en el que existe una firma establecida. Abordamos el equilibrio en un modelo de duopolio asumiendo que el entrante sigue un único periodo de competencia en cantidades Cournot-Nash. Incorporamos los costos de retención al modelo de Klemperer (1988). El entrante, con el fin de atraer a un cliente, asume los costos de cambio de proveedor en que incurre el consumidor; la firma establecida asume los costos de retención para conservarlo. Suponemos una demanda lineal y costos marginales de ambas firmas constantes. Los resultados del trabajo son importantes para el análisis de las implicaciones sobre bienestar social de las políticas regulatorias. Realizamos una simulación del modelo teórico y confirmamos los resultados relevantes en términos de bienestar social, excedente del consumidor, beneficios y cantidades en monopolio y en duopolio con costos de cambio y con costos de cambio y de retención. Palabras clave: políticas públicas de apertura; costos de cambio; costos de retención; excedente del consumidor; bienestar social.
The paper used time-series data and examined the effect of economic and social variables on the male and female self-employment rates in Spain. We also employed cointegration analysis (with and without) structural breaks. We thus find strong evidence that long run relationships exist among the variables. More precisely, we find that the unemployment rates and the ratio of self-employment to employees' earnings have a positive effect on self-employment, whereas, economic development and divorce rates have a negative effect. Importantly, we find that the economic variables have equal or stronger long run impact on females than males, with both groups reacting to changes in family circumstances. Finally, we show that the short run family circumstances are better predictors of selfemployment choices rather than economic factors, with self-employment being a means of adjustment to new personal circumstances and economic needs.
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