In recent decades, large increases in diabetes prevalence have been demonstrated in virtually all regions of the world. The increase in the number of people with diabetes or with a longer duration of diabetes is likely to alter the disease profile in many populations around the globe, particularly due to a higher incidence of diabetes-specific complications, such as kidney failure and peripheral arterial disease. The epidemiology of other conditions frequently associated with diabetes, including infections and cardiovascular disease, may also change, with direct effects on quality of life, demands on health services and economic costs. The current understanding of the international burden of and variation in diabetes-related complications is poor. The available data suggest that rates of myocardial infarction, stroke and amputation are decreasing among people with diabetes, in parallel with declining mortality. However, these data predominantly come from studies in only a few high-income countries. Trends in other complications of diabetes, such as end-stage renal disease, retinopathy and cancer, are less well explored. In this review, we synthesise data from population-based studies on trends in diabetes complications, with the objectives of: (1) characterising recent and long-term trends in diabetes-related complications; (2) describing regional variation in the excess risk of complications, where possible; and (3) identifying and prioritising gaps for future surveillance and study.

Monash University, Baker IDI Bright Sparks Foundation, Australian Postgraduate Award, VicHealth, National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council, Victorian Government.

OBJECTIVEEvidence indicates an increased risk of certain cancers among people with type 2 diabetes. Evidence for rarer cancers and for type 1 diabetes is limited. We explored the excess risk of site-specific cancer incidence and mortality among people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes, compared with the general Australian population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSRegistrants of a national diabetes registry (953,382) between 1997 and 2008 were linked to national death and cancer registries. Standardized incidence and mortality ratios (SIRs/SMRs) are reported.

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OBJECTIVEWith improvements in cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates among people with diabetes, mortality rates may also be changing. However, these trends may be influenced by coding practices of CVD-related deaths on death certificates. We analyzed trends of mortality over 13 years in people with diabetes and quantified the potential misclassification of CVD mortality according to current coding methods. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSA total of 1,136,617 Australians with diabetes registered on the National Diabetes Services Scheme between 1997 and 2010 were linked to the National Death Index. Excess mortality relative to the Australian population was reported as standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Potential misclassification of CVD mortality was determined by coding CVD according to underlying cause of death (COD) and then after consideration of both the underlying and other causes listed in part I of the death certificate. RESULTSFor type 1 diabetes, the SMR decreased in males from 4.20 in 1997 to 3.08 in 2010 (P trend < 0.001) and from 3.92 to 3.46 in females (P trend < 0.01). For type 2 diabetes, the SMR decreased in males from 1.40 to 1.21 (P trend < 0.001) and from 1.56 to 1.22 in females (P trend < 0.001). CVD deaths decreased from 35.6 to 31.2% and from 31.5 to 27.2% in males and females with type 1 diabetes, respectively (P trend < 0.001 for both sexes). For type 2 diabetes, CVD decreased from 44.5 to 29.2% in males and from 45.5 to 31.6% in females (P trend < 0.001 for both sexes). Using traditional coding methods, ∼38 and 26% of CVD deaths are underestimated in type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes, respectively. CONCLUSIONSAll-cause and CVD mortality has decreased in diabetes. However, the total CVD mortality burden is underestimated when only underlying COD is considered. This has important ramifications for understanding mortality patterns in diabetes.

Objective To assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes. Design Systematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines. Data sources Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications. Eligibility criteria Studies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year. Results Among the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89%) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36% (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55% (12/22) had stable trends, and 9% (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66% (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32% (16/50), and decreased in 2% (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33% (11/33) of populations, whereas 30% (10/33) and 36% (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively. Conclusions The incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different. Systematic review registration Prospero CRD42018092287.

Aims/hypothesisAn excess cancer incidence of 20–25% has been identified among persons with diabetes, most of whom have type 2 diabetes. We aimed to describe the association between type 1 diabetes and cancer incidence.MethodsPersons with type 1 diabetes were identified from five nationwide diabetes registers: Australia (2000–2008), Denmark (1995–2014), Finland (1972–2012), Scotland (1995–2012) and Sweden (1987–2012). Linkage to national cancer registries provided the numbers of incident cancers in people with type 1 diabetes and in the general population. We used Poisson models with adjustment for age and date of follow up to estimate hazard ratios for total and site-specific cancers.ResultsA total of 9,149 cancers occurred among persons with type 1 diabetes in 3.9 million person-years. The median age at cancer diagnosis was 51.1 years (interquartile range 43.5–59.5). The hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) associated with type 1 diabetes for all cancers combined were 1.01 (0.98, 1.04) among men and 1.07 (1.04, 1.10) among women. HRs were increased for cancer of the stomach (men, HR 1.23 [1.04, 1.46]; women, HR 1.78 [1.49, 2.13]), liver (men, HR 2.00 [1.67, 2.40]; women, HR 1.55 [1.14, 2.10]), pancreas (men, HR 1.53 [1.30, 1.79]; women, HR 1.25 [1.02,1.53]), endometrium (HR 1.42 [1.27, 1.58]) and kidney (men, HR 1.30 [1.12, 1.49]; women, HR 1.47 [1.23, 1.77]). Reduced HRs were found for cancer of the prostate (HR 0.56 [0.51, 0.61]) and breast (HR 0.90 [0.85, 0.94]). HRs declined with increasing diabetes duration.ConclusionType 1 diabetes was associated with differences in the risk of several common cancers; the strength of these associations varied with the duration of diabetes.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-016-3884-9) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.