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Epidemics of chikungunya fever, an Aedes spp.-borne viral disease, affected hundreds of thousands of people in western Indian Ocean islands and India during 2005-2006. The initial outbreaks occurred in coastal Kenya (Lamu, then Mombasa) in 2004. We investigated eco-climatic conditions associated with chikungunya fever emergence along coastal Kenya using epidemiologic investigations and satellite data. Unusually dry, warm conditions preceded the outbreaks, including the driest since 1998 for some of the coastal regions. Infrequent replenishment of domestic water stores and elevated temperatures may have facilitated Chikungunya virus transmission. These results suggest that drought-affected populations may be at heightened risk for chikungunya fever, and underscore the need for safe water storage during drought relief operations.

Population linkage disequilibrium occurs as a consequence of mutation, selection, genetic drift, and population substructure produced by admixture of genetically distinct ethnic populations. African American and Hispanic ethnic groups have a history of significant gene flow among parent groups, which can be of value in affecting genome scans for disease-gene discovery in the case-control and transmission/disequilibrium test designs. Disease-gene discovery using mapping by admixture linkage disequilibrium (MALD) requires a map of polymorphic markers that differentiate between the founding populations, along with differences in disease-gene allele frequencies. We describe markers appropriate for MALD mapping by assessing allele frequencies of 744 short tandem repeats (STRs) in African Americans, Hispanics, European Americans, and Asians, by choosing STR markers that have large differences in composite delta, log-likelihood ratios, and/or I*(2) for MALD. Additional markers can be added to this MALD map by utilization of the rapidly growing single-nucleotide-polymorphism databases and the literature, to achieve a 3-10-cM scanning scale. The map will be useful for studies of diseases, including prostate and breast cancer, diabetes, hypertension, and end-stage renal disease, that have large differences in incidence between the founding populations of either Hispanics or African Americans.

Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14–81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5–28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

Background: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data.

Background. Most epidemiologic studies of tick-borne rickettsial diseases in the United States are small and have limited demographic scope, making broader risk assessment difficult.Methods. We conducted a seroprevalence study of spotted fever group rickettsiae and Anaplasma phagocytophilum, the agent of human granulocytic anaplasmosis. Specimens were selected randomly from the Department of Defense Serum Repository for 10,000 diverse military personnel at various stages in their careers who were serving with active duty status in 1997. Antibody testing included enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for Rickettsia rickettsii and A. phagocytophilum, and Western blot confirmation for A. phagocytophilum. Risk factors were assessed using logistic regression.Results. Subjects were mostly male and young and were diverse ethnically and geographically. Spotted fever group rickettsiae seropositivity was 6.0% (95% confidence interval, 5.5%-6.4%). In univariable logistic regression, seroprevalence was significantly higher among older subjects, men (6.5%, compared with 3.3% among women), black individuals (8.7%, compared with 5.6% among white individuals), subjects from states with above-average Rocky Mountain spotted fever incidence, and subjects in ground combat specialties. Associations remained significant in multivariable analysis for age, sex, black versus white race, home state with high incidence, and ground combat specialty. Among 696 subjects with serum samples obtained within 7 days after entering the military, the rate of seropositivity was 3.4% (95% confidence interval, 2.1%-4.8%). Seroprevalence was nonsignificantly lower in men (3.4%, compared with 3.7% in women ) and in black individuals (3.4%, compared with 4.1% in white individuals). A. phagocytophilum seropositivity, as determined by by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and Western blot, was 2.6% and 0.11% (95% confidence interval, 0.05%-0.18%), respectively. Western blot seropositivity was not significantly associated with subject characteristics in univariable analysis.Conclusions. Spotted fever group rickettsiae exposure was common and A. phagocytophilum exposure was rare in a US population with broad demographic diversity.

Background: Often in survey research, subsets of the population invited to complete the survey do not respond in a timely manner and valuable resources are expended in recontact efforts. Various methods of improving response have been offered, such as reducing questionnaire length, offering incentives, and utilizing reminders; however, these methods can be costly. Utilizing characteristics of early responders (refusal or consent) in enrollment and recontact efforts may be a unique and cost-effective approach for improving the quality of epidemiologic research.