Wildfire is the main disturbance in forested ecosystems of southern Europe and is due to complex interactions between climate-weather, fuels and people. Warmer and drier conditions projected in this region are expected to profoundly affect wildfires, which will impact ecosystems and humans. We review the scientific literature addressing the assessment of climate change impacts on wildfires in southern Europe, with a twofold objective: (i) report the trends in wildfire danger and activity projected under warming climate in southern Europe and (ii) discuss the limitations of wildfire projections under the specific biogeographical context of southern Europe. We identified 22 projection studies that examined future wildfire danger or wildfire activity at local, regional or continental scale. Under the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, we found that projections studies estimate an increase in future fire danger and burnt areas varying, on average, from 2 to 4 % and from 15 to 25 % per decade, respectively. Fire-prone area expansion to the north and to Mediterranean mountains is a concern, while climate-induced burnt area increase might be limited by fuel availability in the most arid areas. While all studies agreed on the direction of changes, further comparisons on the magnitude of increase remained challenging because of heterogeneous methodological choices between projections studies (climate models, projection period, spatial scale and fire metrics).We then described three main sources of uncertainty that may affect the reliability of wildfire projections: climate projections, climate-fire models, and the influences of fuel load/structure and human related factors on the climate-fire relationships. We finally suggest research directions to address some of these issues for the purpose of refining fire danger and fire activity projections in southern Europe.

An adapted bench-scale Mass Loss Calorimeter (MLC) device for evaluating forest fuel flammability and combustion properties is proposed. This fire test apparatus consists of an MLC fitted with a chimney containing a thermopile. After the thermopile output has been calibrated by use of a methane burner, these data are used to quantify heat release, as an alternative to the classical measurement of oxygen consumption due to combustion. The results showed good repeatability and reasonable approximation to HRR values obtained with a cone calorimeter, and also demonstrated that each variable analyzed was significantly affected by the species considered.

The present study proposes a new method in order to evaluate the flammability of live plant parts at bench-scale. Flammability parameters were estimated by the use of a mass loss calorimeter, and fuel moisture content was evaluated by the use of moisture analyser. Forest fuels (Pinus pinaster, Cistus laurifolius, Lavandula stoechas and Daphne gnidium) were monitored under field conditions to detect the changes in the fuel moisture contents during the fire risk season. The combination of two different bench-scale devices (moisture analyser and mass loss calorimeter) guarantees fixed conditions for carrying out laboratory tests (constant bulk density and constant sample dry mass), thus resolving problems detected with other devices and methodologies.

The effect of wildfire and the subsequent harvesting on soil degradation was evaluated in a burned Pinus pinaster stand in Galicia (NW Spain). During the first year following a fire of moderate intensity, burned trees were not harvested and soil erosion losses, measured by sediment collection at the bottom of bordered plots, were very low. An apparently limited impact of fire on soil and reduced rainfall erosivity for this period could be responsible for that result.Salvage logging took place 13 months after fire. Three post-fire alternatives were compared: no harvesting (standing burned trees), harvesting þ windrowed slash and harvesting þ slash chopping. Soil losses were even lower during the 14 months after these treatments than for the previous pre-harvesting period. Again, low mineral soil exposition and rainfall erosivity seemed to contribute to that result.Changes in soil bulk density and soil shear strength after clearcutting and slash manipulation were small and not enough to trigger sediment yield significantly.Harvesting and logging operations apparently increased soil inhomogeneities. This degree of variability was more adequately assessed by using micro-plot fences instead of plot fences. The percentage of soil disturbed by machinery was the variable most related with the observed minor soil losses after harvesting, at micro-plot level. This study indicated that the combined effect of wildfire and clearcutting caused only an acceleration of soil erosion when significant exposition of mineral soil occurred after these perturbations. However, these results must be taken with caution because rain erosivity during the study was low. To delay post-fire clearcutting until several months after the fire could reduce the impact of this forestry operation on burned soils, taking advantage of the natural mulch created by scorched leaves fall, although other issues must be taken into account.

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& Key message Fuel moisture and chemical content affecting live plant flammability can be measured through laboratory and field techniques, or remotely assessed. Standardization of methodologies and a better understanding of plant attributes and phenological status can improve models for fire management.

In this real-life study, 32% of patients received an inappropriate dose of DOAC. Several clinical factors can identify patients at risk of this situation.

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