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Assessing the resilience of communities is assuming greater importance at a time of global economic upheaval, climatic and socio-demographic change. The past 10-15 years have seen a significant increase in the number of studies addressing resilience issues at community level from a variety of perspectives, and although the resilience of communities in dealing with disturbances feature strongly in these studies, less work appears to have been undertaken at the interface between community resilience and land degradation. In addition, little attention has been paid to land degradation, desertification risk and community resilience at the forest-community interface, despite the fact that forest ecosystems represent one of the most important terrestrial biomes in terms of the ecosystem services and socioeconomic benefits that they provide. Building on existing community resilience literature, which highlights the importance of various socio-economic and political drivers for understanding community resilience, this study analyses how economic, institutional, social, cultural and natural factors at community level affect the ability of communities to adapt and adjust decision-making pathways towards resilience. The study focuses on the municipality of Gorgoglione (Basilicata, Italy), a typical Mediterranean forest and shrubland socioecological system characterised by a mixture of agricultural and forest landscapes, and prone to land degradation issues linked to both anthropogenic (deforestation, overgrazing, forest fires) and natural (soil erosion, droughts, climate aridity) causes. A case study approach is used, drawing on quantitative and qualitative data across spatial levels and temporal scales to examine the complex interrelationships between community resilience, forest ecosystems and land degradation.

This study illustrates an exploratory approach based on a Multiway Factor Analysis (MFA) to estimate rapidity of change in complex urban systems, based on “fast” and “slow” variables. The proposed methodology was applied to 18 socioeconomic indicators of long‐term (1960–2010) transformations in 115 municipalities of Athens’ metropolitan area (Greece), including demography, land‐use/planning, and urban form and functions. Athens was regarded as a dynamic urban area with diversified structures and functions at the local scale, expanding through a self‐organized pattern rather than a centralized planning strategy. Athens’ urban system was described using nine supplementary (topographic and territorial) variables and 30 independent indicators assessing the local context in recent times. Exploratory data analysis found an increasing connectedness and redundancy among socioeconomic indicators during the phase of largest urban expansion (1960–1990). Only the rate of population growth was classified as a “fast” variable for all five decades investigated. The overall rapidity of change was higher in 1960–1970, 1980–1990, and 2000–2010, decades that coincided with specific phases of urban expansion driven by migration inflow, second‐home suburbanization, and Olympic games, respectively. Rapidity of change was high for functional indicators during all five decades studied, while demography indicators changed more rapidly in the first three decades and land‐use/planning indicators in the last two decades. Rapidity of change was highest in peri‐urban municipalities with a highly diversified economic structure dominated by industry. Our methodology provides a comprehensive overview of the transformations of a complex urban system, quantifying low‐level indicators that are rarely assessed in the mainstream literature on urban studies. These results may contribute to design policies addressing complexity and promoting resilience in expanding metropolitan areas.

Abstract:The present study illustrates a multidimensional analysis of an indicator of urban land use efficiency (per-capita built-up area, LUE) in mainland Attica, a Mediterranean urban region, along different expansion waves : compaction and densification in the 1960s, dispersed growth along the coasts and on Athens' fringe in the 1970s, fringe consolidation in the 1980s, moderate re-polarization and discontinuous expansion in the 1990s and sprawl in remote areas in the 2000s. The non-linear trend in LUE (a continuous increase up to the 1980s and a moderate decrease in 1990 and 2000 preceding the rise observed over the last decade) reflects Athens' expansion waves. A total of 23 indicators were collected by decade for each municipality of the study area with the aim of identifying the drivers of land use efficiency. In 1960, municipalities with low efficiency in the use of land were concentrated on both coastal areas and Athens' fringe, while in 2010, the lowest efficiency rate was observed in the most remote, rural areas. Typical urban functions (e.g., mixed land uses, multiple-use buildings, vertical profile) are the variables most associated with high efficiency in the use of land. Policies for sustainable land management should consider local and regional factors shaping land use efficiency promoting self-contained expansion and more tightly protecting rural and remote land from dispersed urbanization. LUE is a OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2015, 7 3360 promising indicator reflecting the increased complexity of growth patterns and may anticipate future urban trends.

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