Abstract.Although flooding can lead to many types of severe consequences, the primary objective of the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) dam and levee safety programs are to manage risk to the public who rely on those structures to keep them reasonably safe from flooding. Thus, reducing the risk associated with loss of life is paramount. USACE employs a scalable approach to estimating loss of life, where the goal is to invest an appropriate amount of resources to answer the question at hand. Given the large number of dams and levees within the USACE SRUWIROLR RYHU GDPV DQG PLOHV RI OHYHHV D ³RQH VL]H ILWV DOO´ DSproach does not work. Screening-level risk assessments are carried out to initially characterize risk. That initial risk characterization informs prioritization of additional efforts such as interim risk management activities and more detailed risk assessments. More detailed risk assessments inform investment in long-term risk reduction measures, which include analysis and selection of major modification activities and implementation of non-structural measures including emergency management and evacuation planning. This paper describes the USACE scalable approach for estimating loss of life from flood events.
A combined risk analysis approach for complex dam-levee systems
ABSTRACTIn many areas of the world, dams and levees are built to reduce the likelihood of flooding. However, if they fail, the result can be catastrophic flooding beyond what would happen if they did not exist. Therefore, understanding the risk reduced by the dam or levee, as well as any risk imposed by these flood defences is of high importance when determining the appropriate risk reduction investment strategy. This paper describes an approach for quantifying and analysing risk for complex dam-levee systems, and its application to a real case study. The basis behind such approach rely on the potential of event tree modelling to analyse risk from multiple combinations of "load-system response-consequence" events, tested by the authors for a real case study. The combined approach shows how the contribution to system risk of each sub-system can be assessed. It also describes how decisions on risk mitigation measures, at the individual asset scale, can and should be informed in terms of how they impact the overall system risk.
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