The vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current knowledge regarding mechanisms, geographic distribution, and landscape indicators. While “terrain‐mediated” refugia will mostly be limited to coastal and mountain regions, the ecological inertia (resistance to external fluctuations) contained in some boreal ecosystems may provide more extensive buffering against climate change, resulting in “ecosystem‐protected” refugia. A notable example is boreal peatlands, which can retain high surface soil moisture and water tables even in the face of drought. Refugia from wildfire are also especially important in the boreal region, which is characterized by active disturbance regimes. Our framework will help identify areas of high refugia potential, and inform ecosystem management and conservation planning in light of climate change.

Spatial data for the Climate Moisture Index and the Palmer Drought Severity Index were generated from gridded temperature and precipitation data for the Canadian boreal zone over the period . Annual values for the indices for 2011-2100 were generated from projections of future climate derived from four general circulation models forced by three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Linear regression models between the indices and time were fitted to examine long-term trends. Results indicated that several large regions of the Canadian boreal forest experienced substantial drying during 1951-2010. Future projections indicated a general trend toward drier conditions during the 21 st century. Overall, the analysis indicated more frequent and/or more severe droughts across managed western and central portions of the boreal forest in coming decades. These projections of indices are relevant to forest management because soil moisture availability is an important determinant of forest distribution, tree health, and regeneration success. Knowledge of the range of potential future changes in drought occurrence and intensity will aid forest managers and decisionmakers in incorporating climate change considerations into forest management planning and practices.

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Canadian forest management agencies have already made significant progress in addressing climate change. Adaptation measures have included undertaking research and completing assessments; implementing organizational changes; beginning to modify policy, practices, and approaches; developing tools; and providing guidance and education. Although progress to date is encouraging, forest managers recognize that adaptation is in its early stages. Suggested next steps include making further progress in adapting wildfire management; adapting forest and pest management; incorporating climate change considerations into seed transfer, tree species selection, and stocking policies; adapting forest industry operations; and adapting forest management decision making by including climate change in assessment, monitoring, analysis, and forest management planning. Potential longer term options are to move toward integrated adaptation and mitigation and to modify forest management to account for the effects of climate change on processes at broader landscape scales. Moving forward with implementation requires consideration of the degree to which organizations and/or key stakeholders are ready, able, and willing to implement the changes and whether there are appropriate partnerships, enabling institutions, required science and actionable knowledge, sufficient adaptation resources (in terms of knowledgeable individuals and funding), and sufficient leadership to meaningfully move forward with change.