Spatial data for the Climate Moisture Index and the Palmer Drought Severity Index were generated from gridded temperature and precipitation data for the Canadian boreal zone over the period . Annual values for the indices for 2011-2100 were generated from projections of future climate derived from four general circulation models forced by three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Linear regression models between the indices and time were fitted to examine long-term trends. Results indicated that several large regions of the Canadian boreal forest experienced substantial drying during 1951-2010. Future projections indicated a general trend toward drier conditions during the 21 st century. Overall, the analysis indicated more frequent and/or more severe droughts across managed western and central portions of the boreal forest in coming decades. These projections of indices are relevant to forest management because soil moisture availability is an important determinant of forest distribution, tree health, and regeneration success. Knowledge of the range of potential future changes in drought occurrence and intensity will aid forest managers and decisionmakers in incorporating climate change considerations into forest management planning and practices.
Much research attention regarding climate change has been focused on the macrophysical and, to a lesser extent, the macrosocial features of this phenomenon. An important step in mitigation and adaptation will be to examine the ways that climate change risks manifest themselves in particular social localities. Certain social groups may be at greater risk, not solely because of their geographic location in a region of high climate sensitivity but also because of economic, political, and cultural characteristics. Combining the insights of economics and sociology, we provide an ideal-type model of northern forest-based communities that suggests that these communities may represent a particularized social context in regard to climate change. Although scientific research indicates that northern forest ecosystems are among those regions at greatest risk to the impacts of climate change, the social dimensions of these communities indicate both a limited community capacity and a limited potential to perceive climate change as a salient risk issue that warrants action. Five features of forest-based communities describe this context in further detail: (i) the constraints on adaptability in rural, resource-dependent communities to respond to risk in a proactive manner, (ii) the national and international identification of deforestation as a central causal mechanism in the political arena, (iii) the nature of commercial forestry investment planning and management decision-making, (iv) the potential by members of these communities to underestimate the risk associated with climate change, and (v) the multiplicity of climate change risk factors in forest-based communities.
Perception of risk or subjective risk is playing an increasingly important role in risk assessment. This paper describes a study that investigated perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forest-based communities among a sample of Canadian forestry experts. Data were collected by questionnaire from participants at a climate change and forestry workshop, sponsored by the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network Forest Sector and the McGregor Model Forest held in Prince George, British Columbia in February 2003. These forestry experts were somewhat concerned about the impacts of climate change, and they appeared unlikely to oppose strategies for preparing for and adapting to climate change. The respondents felt that the effects of climate change on forests and forest-based communities are not well understood by the general public or forest managers. They also felt that there is a relatively high level of uncertainty about the effects of climate change, especially with respect to forest-based communities. These results have important implications, including reinforcement of the need for greater awareness of climate change risks and for increased research and monitoring effort targeted at reducing levels of uncertainty about future impacts at local scales.Key words: climate change, risk perceptions, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities RÉSUMÉ La perception du risque ou risque subjectif joue un rôle de plus en plus important au niveau de l'évaluation du risque. Cet article décrit une étude qui a porté sur les perceptions du risque associé aux changements climatiques touchant les écosys-tèmes forestiers et les communautés dépendantes des forêts parmi certains experts forestiers canadiens. Les données ont été recueillies au moyen d'un questionnaire complété par les participants d'un atelier sur les changements climatiques et la foresterie, commandité le Réseau canadien du secteur forestier sur les changements climatiques et les recherches d'adaptation ainsi que par la Forêt modèle de McGregor qui a eu lieu à Prince George, Colombie-Britannique, en février 2003. Ces experts forestiers étaient quelque peu inquiets des conséquences découlant des changements climatiques et ils ont semblé n'être vraisemblablement pas opposés aux stratégies de préparation et d'adaptation aux changements climatiques. Les personnes interrogées considèrent que les effets des changements climatiques sur les forêts et les communautés dépendantes des forêts ne sont pas bien compris du grand public ni des gestionnaires forestiers. Ils considèrent également qu'il existe un niveau relativement élevé d'incertitude rattaché aux effets des changements climatiques, spécialement pour ce qui est des communautés dépendantes des forêts. Ces résultats comportent des grandes implications, dont le renforcement marqué de la sensibilisation portant sur les risques reliés aux changements climatiques et l'accroissement des recherches et des efforts de suivi portant sur la réduction des niveaux d'incertitude rattaché...
Realtime data processing powers many use cases at Facebook, including realtime reporting of the aggregated, anonymized voice of Facebook users, analytics for mobile applications, and insights for Facebook page administrators. Many companies have developed their own systems; we have a realtime data processing ecosystem at Facebook that handles hundreds of Gigabytes per second across hundreds of data pipelines.Many decisions must be made while designing a realtime stream processing system. In this paper, we identify five important design decisions that affect their ease of use, performance, fault tolerance, scalability, and correctness. We compare the alternative choices for each decision and contrast what we built at Facebook to other published systems.Our main decision was targeting seconds of latency, not milliseconds. Seconds is fast enough for all of the use cases we support and it allows us to use a persistent message bus for data transport. This data transport mechanism then paved the way for fault tolerance, scalability, and multiple options for correctness in our stream processing systems Puma, Swift, and Stylus.We then illustrate how our decisions and systems satisfy our requirements for multiple use cases at Facebook. Finally, we reflect on the lessons we learned as we built and operated these systems.
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