Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km 2 ), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.global change | hydrology | invasive species | niche model | distribution modeling N early all broad-scale analyses of climate effects on freshwater species have focused on temperature shifts, to the exclusion of other climate-driven drivers. Although temperature is a critical determinant of metabolic and physical processes (1), important ecosystem effects on streams and rivers may also be mediated by flow regime and biotic interactions. Flow regime has been described as a "master variable" (2) that controls or influences many aspects of the physical aquatic environment, as well as the timing of reproduction and migration of many organisms (3). Biotic interactions are increasingly recognized as important components of climate-species relationships (4, 5), but are rarely included in projections of species distributions under future climates, with some notable exceptions (6). Competitive interactions in particular are not commonly modeled (but see ref. 7), despite interest in invasive-native species interaction under climate change (8). It is likely that all three factors-temperature, flow regime, and biotic interactions-will play important roles in future aquatic species distributional shifts (8-11).Trout serve as excellent model organisms for examining how these mechanisms could alter population dynamics and species distributio...

Thermal regimes are fundamental determinants of aquatic ecosystems, which makes description and prediction of temperatures critical during a period of rapid global change. The advent of inexpensive temperature sensors dramatically increased monitoring in recent decades, and although most monitoring is done by individuals for agency‐specific purposes, collectively these efforts constitute a massive distributed sensing array that generates an untapped wealth of data. Using the framework provided by the National Hydrography Dataset, we organized temperature records from dozens of agencies in the western U.S. to create the NorWeST database that hosts >220,000,000 temperature recordings from >22,700 stream and river sites. Spatial‐stream‐network models were fit to a subset of those data that described mean August water temperatures (AugTw) during 63,641 monitoring site‐years to develop accurate temperature models (r2 = 0.91; RMSPE = 1.10°C; MAPE = 0.72°C), assess covariate effects, and make predictions at 1 km intervals to create summer climate scenarios. AugTw averaged 14.2°C (SD = 4.0°C) during the baseline period of 1993–2011 in 343,000 km of western perennial streams but trend reconstructions also indicated warming had occurred at the rate of 0.17°C/decade (SD = 0.067°C/decade) during the 40 year period of 1976–2015. Future scenarios suggest continued warming, although variation will occur within and among river networks due to differences in local climate forcing and stream responsiveness. NorWeST scenarios and data are available online in user‐friendly digital formats and are widely used to coordinate monitoring efforts among agencies, for new research, and for conservation planning.

Metapopulation structure of species in fragmented landscapes is ultimately the result of spatial variability in demographic processes. While specific information on demographic parameters is desirable, a more practical approach to studying metapopulations in fragmented landscapes may begin with analyses of species’ occurrence in relation to large‐scale habitat variability. Here, we analyzed occurrence of stream‐living bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in relation to physical, biotic, and geometrical characteristics of habitats. Bull trout occurrence was analyzed at several spatial (10x m) scales. Data were from nested sampling of 720 sites (10 m), 179 reaches (102 m), and 81 patches (≥103 m) of stream habitats within the Boise River basin of central Idaho. Based on previous findings, patches were defined as stream catchments with suitable conditions for spawning and rearing of bull trout (>1600 m elevation). Patch‐scale bull trout occurrence was significantly related to patch area and isolation (stream distance between occupied patches). Lack of spatial autocorrelation between patches indicated that isolation effects were more likely the result of limited interaction among habitats (such as dispersal), rather than of correlated environmental conditions. A third factor, human disturbance in the form of roads, was associated with reduced bull trout occurrence at the patch‐scale. Analyses of occurrence among reaches within occupied patches showed bull trout may select larger (>2 m width) stream habitats. Occurrence of bull trout was not associated with nonnative brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) at large (patch), intermediate (reach), or small (site) spatial scales. Definition of a metapopulation structure for bull trout in the Boise River basin was complicated by uncertainties in the frequency and magnitude of dispersal. From the distribution of patch sizes and isolation among occupied patches, we suggest that the metapopulation is a complex mosaic of several elements found in conceptual models. This complexity poses a challenge to empirical and theoretical attempts to study stream‐living bull trout. Future work to define the structure of bull trout metapopulations must relate temporal and spatial patterns of patch occupancy with complex patterns of dispersal that likely interact with habitat spatial structure, life history variability, and the historical context of regional climate changes. Results of this work suggest that conservation of bull trout should involve protection of larger, less isolated, and less disturbed (as indexed by road densities) habitats that may serve as important refugia or sources of recolonization. Bull trout populations in smaller, isolated, and more disturbed habitats may be at risk of extinction. Finally, metapopulation structure implies the existence of suitable, but presently unoccupied habitat, which should be managed carefully to facilitate potential natural recolonization or reintroductions of bull trout.

Conservation biologists often face the trade-off that increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes to reduce extinction risk of native species can foster invasion by non-native species that enter via the corridors created, which can then increase extinction risk. This dilemma is acute for stream fishes

– Metapopulation theory has attracted considerable interest with reference to the salmonids. There has been little empirical evidence, however, to guide the evaluation or application of metapopulation concepts. From knowledge of salmonid life histories and our own work with bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), Lahontan cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki henshawi) and westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi), we suggest that simple generalizations of salmonid metapopulations are inappropriate. Although spatial structuring and dispersal mechanisms are evident, the relevance of extinction and colonization processes are likely to vary with life history, species, scale, and landscape. Understanding dispersal, the role of suitable but unoccupied habitats, and the potential for extinction debts in non‐equilibrium metapopulations are key issues. With regard to conservation of salmonids, we suggest that efforts to understand and conserve key processes likely to influence the persistence of populations or metapopulations will be more successful than efforts to design minimal habitat reserves based on metapopulation theory.NOTE

Estimation of fish abundance in streams using the removal model or the Lincoln-Peterson mark-recapture model is a common practice in fisheries. These models produce misleading results if their assumptions are violated. We evaluated the assumptions of these two models via electrofishing of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in central Idaho streams. For one-, two-, three-, and four-pass sampling effort in closed sites, we evaluated the influences of fish size and habitat characteristics on sampling efficiency and the accuracy of removal abundance estimates. We also examined the use of models to generate unbiased estimates of fish abundance through adjustment of total catch or biased removal estimates. Our results suggested that the assumptions of the markrecapture model were satisfied and that abundance estimates based on this approach were unbiased. In contrast, the removal model assumptions were not met. Decreasing sampling efficiencies over removal passes resulted in underestimated population sizes and overestimates of sampling efficiency. This bias decreased, but was not eliminated, with increased sampling effort. Biased removal estimates based on different levels of effort were highly correlated with each other but were less correlated with unbiased mark-recapture estimates. Stream size decreased sampling efficiency, and stream size and instream wood increased the negative bias of removal estimates. We found that reliable estimates of population abundance could be obtained from models of sampling efficiency for different levels of effort. Validation of abundance estimates requires extra attention to routine sampling considerations but can help fisheries biologists avoid pitfalls associated with biased data and facilitate standardized comparisons among studies that employ different sampling methods.

Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the limits or constraints on behavioral responses to changing conditions. Here, we characterize the contexts in which organisms respond to climate variability through behavior. First, we quantify patterns in behavioral responses across taxa with respect to timescales, climatic stimuli, life‐history traits, and ecology. Next, we identify existing knowledge gaps, research biases, and other challenges. Finally, we discuss how conservation practitioners and resource managers can incorporate an improved understanding of behavioral flexibility into natural resource management and policy decisions.

Monitoring of salmonid populations often involves annual redd counts, but the validity of this method has seldom been evaluated. We conducted redd counts of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in two streams in northern Idaho to address four issues: (1) relationships between adult escapements and redd counts; (2) interobserver variability in redd counts; (3) sources of interobserver variability; and (4) temporal and spatial variation in spawning activity. We found that estimated adult escapements and redd counts were strongly correlated on a logarithmic scale, but both sources of data probably contained large estimation or observation errors. In particular, redd counts varied significantly among observers in replicate counting trials. Observer counts ranged between 28% and 254% of the best estimates of actual redd numbers. Counting errors included both omissions and false identifications. Correlations between counting errors and redd and habitat characteristics were highly variable and provided limited insights into potential causes of sampling error. Finally, we found significant spatial and temporal variability in spawning activity, which should be considered in establishing index areas for redd counts and the timing of counts. Our results suggest substantial improvements are needed to make redd counts and unbiased estimates of adult escapement more useful for population monitoring.