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A direct link between the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults would enable simultaneous rupture.

Studies of recent destructive megathrust earth­quakes and tsunamis along subduction margins in Japan, Sumatra, and Chile have linked forearc mor­phology and structure to megathrust behavior. This connection is based on the idea that spatial varia­tions in the frictional behavior of the megathrust influence the tectono-morphological evolution of the upper plate. Here we present a comprehen­sive examination of the tectonic geomorphology, outer wedge taper, and structural vergence along the marine forearc of the Cascadia subduction zone (offshore northwestern North America). The goal is to better understand geologic controls on outer wedge strength and segmentation at spatial scales equivalent to rupture lengths of large earthquakes (≥M 6.7), and to examine potential linkages with shallow megathrust behavior. We use cross-margin profiles, spaced 25 km apart, to characterize along-strike variation in outer wedge width, steepness, and structural vergence (measured between the toe and the outer arc high). The width of the outer wedge varies between 17 and 93 km, and the steepness ranges from 0.9° to 6.5°. Hierarchical cluster analysis of outer wedge width and steepness reveals four distinct regions that also display unique patterns of structural ver­gence and shape of the wedge: Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada (average width, linear wedge, seaward and mixed vergence); Washington, USA (higher width, concave wedge, landward and mixed vergence); northern and central Oregon, USA (average width, linear and convex wedge, mixed and seaward vergence); and southern Oregon and northern California, USA (lower width, convex wedge, seaward and mixed vergence). Variabil­ity in outer wedge morphology and structure is broadly associated with along-strike megathrust segmentation inferred from differences in oceanic asthenospheric velocities, patterns of episodic tremor and slow slip, GPS models of plate locking, and the distribution of seismicity near the plate interface. In more detail, our results appear to delin­eate the extent, geometry, and lithology of dynamic and static backstops along the margin. Varying backstop configurations along the Cascadia mar­gin are interpreted to represent material-strength contrasts within the wedge that appear to regulate the along- and across-strike taper and structural vergence in the outer wedge. We argue that the morphotectonic variability in the outer wedge may reflect spatial variations in shallow megathrust behavior occurring over roughly the last few million years. Comparing outer wedge taper along the Cascadia margin to a global compilation suggests that observations in the global catalog are not accurately representing the range of hetero­geneity within individual margins and highlights the need for detailed margin-wide morphotectonic analyses of subduction zones worldwide.

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is an exceptional geologic environment for recording evidence of land-level changes, tsunamis, and ground motion that reveals at least 19 great megathrust earthquakes over the past 10 kyr. Such earthquakes are among the most impactful natural hazards on Earth, transcend national boundaries, and can have global impact. Reducing the societal impacts of future events in the US Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia, Canada, requires improved scientific understanding of megathrust earthquake rupture, recurrence, and corresponding hazards. Despite substantial knowledge gained from decades of research, large uncertainties remain about the characteristics and frequencies of past CSZ earthquakes. In this review, we summarize geological, geophysical, and instrumental evidence relevant to understanding megathrust earthquakes along the CSZ and associated uncertainties. We discuss how the evidence constrains various models of great megathrust earthquake recurrence in Cascadia and identify potential paths forward for the earthquake science community. ▪ Despite outstanding geologic records of past megathrust events, large uncertainty of the magnitude and frequency of CSZ earthquakes remains. ▪ This review outlines current knowledge and promising future directions to address outstanding questions on CSZ rupture characteristics and recurrence. ▪ Integration of diverse data sets with attention to the geologic processes that create different records has potential to lead to major progress. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 49 is May 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

We mapped an ~94-km-long portion of the right-lateral Hosgri fault zone in offshore central California using a dense network of high-resolution seismic refl ection profi les, marine magnetic data, and multibeam bathymetry. These data document the location, length, and continuity of multiple fault strands, highlight fault-zone heterogeneity, and demonstrate the importance of fault trend, fault bends, and fault convergence in the development of shallow structure and tectonic geomorphology along strike-slip faults.Eight sections (A through H) of the Hosgri fault are mapped. The fault trends ~335° to 341° in the southern ~40 km of the study area (sections A through C) where shallow deformation is primarily dilational. The absence of tectonic uplift in this area has contributed to localization of the Santa Maria River and delta and, as a result, Holocene sediments cover the fault zone. The Hosgri fault generally trends 329° to 337° in the central ~24 km of the study area (sections D through F), which coincides with oblique convergence of the Hosgri and the more northwest-trending Los Osos and Shoreline faults. This convergence has resulted in local restraining and releasing fault bends, transpressive uplifts, and extensional basins of varying size and morphology. Notably, development of a paired fault bend is linked to indenting and bulging of the Hosgri fault by a strong crustal block translated to the northwest along the Shoreline fault. Two diverging Hosgri fault strands bounding a central uplifted block characterize the northern ~30 km of the Hosgri fault (sections G and H) in this area. The eastern Hosgri passes through signifi cant releasing (329° to 335°) and restraining (335° to 328°) bends before passing onland at San Simeon; the releasing bend is the primary control on development of an elongate, asymmetric, 15-km-long × 300-to 2400-m-wide, "Lazy Z" sedimentary basin. The western strand of the Hosgri fault passes through a signifi cant restraining bend (329° to 316°) and continues northward until slip is transferred to faults underlying the Piedras Blancas fold belt.Earthquake hazard assessments should incorporate a minimum rupture length of 110 km based on continuity of the Hosgri fault zone through this area. Lateral slip rates may vary along the fault (both to the north and south) as different structures converge and diverge but are probably in the geodetically estimated range of 2-4 mm/yr.

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Marine turbidite records have been used to infer palaeoseismicity and estimate recurrence intervals for large (>Mw7) earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Conventional models propose that upper slope failures are funneled into submarine canyons and develop into turbidity flows that are routed down-canyon to deep-water channel and fan systems. However, the sources and pathways of these turbidity flows are poorly constrained, leading to uncertainties in the connections between ground shaking, slope failure and deep-water turbidites. We examine the spatial distribution of submarine landslides along the southern Cascadia margin to identify source regions for slope failures that may have developed into turbidity flows. Using multibeam bathymetry, sparker multichannel seismic and chirp sub-bottom data, we observe relatively few canyon head slope failures and limited evidence of large landslides on the upper and middle slope. Most of the submarine canyons are draped with sediment infill in the upper reaches and do not appear to be active sediment conduits during the recent sea-level highstand. In contrast, there is evidence of extensive mass wasting of the lower slope and non-channelized downslope flows. Contrary to previous studies, we propose that failures along the lower slope are the primary sources for deep-sea seismoturbidites in southern Cascadia.

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