Missing link between the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults

Watt, Janet T.; Ponce, David A.; Parsons, Tom; Hart, Patrick E.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601441

Cited by 17 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Earlier geophysical data indicate that the Rodgers Creek Fault extends far into the San Pablo Bay (Parsons et al, ), forming an overlapping step over with the Hayward Fault. However, Watt et al () do not find evidence for activity along this fault in the upper 2–5 m and map an underlapping step over within the bay. In order to shed insight on the active geometry of the Rodgers Creek Fault, we develop models with two initial Rodgers Creek Fault geometries that span this epistemic uncertainty (Figure S2) and model propagation of the Hayward Fault.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In both models with initially underlapping and overlapping steps, the Hayward Fault propagates to the north and then links with the Rogers Creek in final configurations that resemble those found by Watt et al () (Figure ). In the underlapping step over simulation, which represents the configuration when this portion of the Rodgers Creek Fault within the San Pablo Bay is inactive, the inferred trace of the Hayward Fault lies within the 90% propagation forecast envelope (Figure a).…”

Section: Predictions Of Hayward Fault Propagationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Optimal path (gray) and propagation forecasts (red) of Hayward Fault for (a) underlapping and (b) overlapping models. The dashed lines indicate fault geometry inferred from geophysical imaging of Watt et al (). Predicted optimal Hayward propagation in anisotropic systems for (c) underlapping and (d) overlapping step over models.…”

Section: Predictions Of Hayward Fault Propagationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The red box indicates study area shown. (b) Fault geometry of step over from previous interpretations in black dashed lines (Parsons et al, ) and more recent interpretations in solid gray lines (Watt et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent interpretations of geophysical imaging within the upper 5 m of sediments in the San Pablo Bay (Watt et al, ) refine the previously interpreted fault evolution of McLaughlin et al (). These recent interpretations suggest that at ~8 Ma, changes in plate motion lead to transpression and fault reorganization within the San Pablo Bay (Watt et al, ). After this reorganization, a locally transtensional basin developed between the southern segment of the Rodgers Creek and northern segment of the Hayward.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Work Optimization Predicts the Evolution of Extensional Step Overs Within Anisotropic Host Rock: Implications for the San Pablo Bay, CA

2017

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Recent geophysical imaging indicates that the Hayward Fault hard links to the Rodgers Creek Fault at 5 m depth within the San Pablo Bay, CA, suggesting that earthquakes may be able to rupture continuously through the fault network. To investigate fault propagation, interaction, and linkage in segmented fault networks, including those within the San Pablo Bay, we simulate the development of two idealized, underlapping faults within an extensional step over at seismogenic depths using work optimization. We test the sensitivity of fault growth to strength anisotropy, material heterogeneities, and initial fault geometry. The optimal faults propagate toward each other until linking with the other fault at its tip and form a single hard‐linked transverse fault. These faults propagate with relatively high propagation power or rate of efficiency gain. Less efficient faults form wider basins and develop with reduced propagation power. Models with initial fault geometries that more closely match the shallowly imaged Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults suggest that the faults link at seismogenic depths if a mapped segment of the Rodgers Creek that extends into the San Pablo Bay is currently inactive. Predictions of average slip rate, slip per earthquake, and earthquake magnitude from these models closely match paleoseismic estimates. The hard linkage of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults imaged in the near‐surface, and predicted by these models, increases local seismic hazard by increasing the upper limit of throughgoing earthquakes to M 7.6.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Predictions Of Hayward Fault Propagationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Predictions Of Hayward Fault Propagationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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