The aim of this paper is to analyse the long-term implications of leaving the EU for the UK economy. To do this, we consider three main channels by which the UK economy could be affected in the long run: 1) Reductions in trade with EU countries and a modest increase in tariff barriers.2) A reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly affecting services FDI.3) A reduction in the UK's net fiscal contribution to the EU.We input these effects of leaving the EU into NiGEM, the National Institute Global Econometric Model, a multicountry economic forecasting model. NiGEM has been developed at NIESR over the past three decades and is funded by subscriptions from international institutions, central banks and finance ministries from around the world, as well as some private sector institutions. Both the OECD and HM Treasury have also chosen to use NiGEM to conduct their analysis of the economic impact of leaving the EU. This is not surprising, as NiGEM's explicit trade linkages make it particularly well-suited to modelling the impact on the UK economy of shifts in trade policy.This article presents our estimates of the long-run impact of leaving the EU over the next fifteen years, not only on GDP, but on consumption, real wages, unemployment, and a range of other (endogenously determined) variables. We find that by 2030, GDP is projected to be between 1.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent lower than in the baseline forecast in which the UK remains in the EU. Real wages fall somewhat more, by between 2.2 per cent and 6.3 per cent. Consumption is also hit somewhat harder than GDP, falling by between 2.4 and 5.4 per cent. Real wages and consumption decline more than GDP in the long term due to a long-term deterioration in the terms of trade, coupled with a shift towards savings. Table 14 compares our estimated long-run reductions in GDP to those of three other prominent studies published by the OECD, the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the LSE and HM Treasury. While the studies assume broadly similar reductions in trade and FDI, as well as similar reductions in the UK's net contributions to the EU, the range of estimated impacts on GDP relative to the 2030 baseline is considerably larger. We summarise these results by reporting the estimated reduction in GDP for each percentage point reduction in total trade. In the CEP analysis, GDP is reduced by 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent for each 1 per cent reduction in total trade, while in the OECD and HM Treasury studies, the reduction is about 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent of GDP for each 1 per cent decrease in total trade. In our analysis, GDP is reduced by 0.1 per cent for each 1 per cent reduction in trade, so that our estimates can be seen as more conservative.Our modelling strategy is to focus on a small number of the clearest and most well-understood potential impacts on the EU economy of leaving the EU in our core scenarios. As a result, it is not surprising that our estimated reductions in GDP are smaller than those of by guest on June 4, 2016 ner.sagepub.com D...

and Social Research is Britain's longest established independent research institute, founded in 1938. The vision of our founders was to carry out research to improve understanding of the economic and social forces that affect people's lives, and the ways in which policy can bring about change. Seventy-five years later, this remains central to NIESR's ethos. We continue to apply our expertise in both quantitative and qualitative methods and our understanding of economic and social issues to current debates and to influence policy. The Institute is independent of all party political interests.

Transmission electron microscopy was used to study threading dislocations (TDs) in epitaxial ZnO films on (0001) sapphire substrates produced by a two-step method. First, ZnO was deposited by pulsed laser deposition. It was found that the sample consisted of a continuous buffer layer with a high density, 7×1010/cm2, of TDs, with c-aligned nanorods on its top. The nanorods revealed few, if any, TDs. A further layer of ZnO was then grown under conditions favoring nanorod growth, using either chemical vapor deposition (CVD) or a hydrothermal method. In both cases the nanorods grew laterally and eventually coalesced to form a continuous overgrowth. The nanorods remained mostly free of dislocations until coalescence. New grain boundary dislocations were generated where nanorods coalesced, but many of these dislocations migrated laterally and interacted with other dislocations to form closed loops. The TD density at the top of the continuous film was thereby reduced to 1×109/cm2 and 7×109/cm2 in the cases of hydrothermal and CVD treatments, respectively. The mechanism of growth and the means by which TDs are reduced are explained.

Our forecast, published in the UK chapter of this Review, is conditioned on the assumption that the result of the 23 June referendum is a vote to remain in the EU. The discussion of the economic impact in the first half of the year, and the accompanying uncertainty due to the very act of having the vote, is discussed in the UK chapter in this Review.However, there exists a significant possibility of a vote to leave the EU. The future is, by definition, uncertain and we normally represent this with a distribution of potential outcomes around our modal path for the economy. The referendum presents a particular instance where the future may be genuinely considered bi-modal, with two distinct paths. The outcome of the referendum will determine which of these future paths the UK economy takes.This note presents a simulation exercise designed to give a counterfactual of a world in which the UK votes to leave the EU. We discuss the short-run developments that are most likely to affect the UK economy in the immediate aftermath of a leave vote. We do this by introducing a range of shocks to our global econometric model designed to capture the effects of the UK leaving the EU. These shocks are layered together with a series of more long-run structural changes which are discussed by Ebell and Warren, in this Review.Focusing on the near-term implications, our analysis suggests that the level of GDP in 2017 will be 1 per cent lower than our baseline forecast presented in the UK section of this Review. By 2018 this loss of output widens to 2.3 per cent. Heightened risk and uncertainty will cause sterling to depreciate by around 20 per cent immediately following the referendum, which will result in an intense bout of inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the same uncertainty induces a tightening of credit conditions and a fall in domestic demand as consumption and investment fall relative to the counterfactual of a vote to remain.We begin by detailing the process by which the UK would negotiate exiting the EU followed by a comprehensive exposition of the shocks that form the core of our shortrun analysis. We then conclude with the quantitative implications of our simulation exercise, macroeconomic policy responses and a discussion of the transition to the longer run, which is discussed in detail in Ebell and Warren, in this Review.

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