Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union

Ebell, Monique; Hurst, Ian; Warren, James

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2016.06.020

Cited by 46 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Estimates of the possible impact of Brexit on the national UK economy have varied widely and been the target of much heated debate (such as Ebell, Hurst, & Warren, ; Economists for Brexit, ; HM Treasury, ). At one extreme are studies such as that by HM Treasury and the London School of Economics, which predict that a “hard” Brexit—a withdrawal without any free trade deal with the EU, and a new relation based on WTO trade rules—will lead to a reduction in national GDP of as much as 8 or nearly 10%, respectively, by 2030.…”

Section: How Will Brexit Impact British Cities?mentioning

confidence: 99%

The resilience of cities to economic shocks: A tale of four recessions (and the challenge of Brexit)

Martin

Gardiner

2019

Papers in Regional Science

140

108

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This paper examines the resilience of British cities to major economic shocks. Using a novel data set for 85 cities, it analyses their resistance to and recovery from the last four major recessions, over the period 1971 to 2015. It reveals a distinct shift in the relation between resistance and recovery between these shocks, as well as major differences between northern and southern cities. Some possible factors shaping these patterns are explored, and tentative estimates of the likely impact of the Brexit shock (Britain's withdrawal from the European Union) are also provided. A key implication is that differences in resilience to major shocks can contribute to the long-run growth paths of cities.

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Section: How Will Brexit Impact British Cities?mentioning

confidence: 99%

The resilience of cities to economic shocks: A tale of four recessions (and the challenge of Brexit)

Martin

Gardiner

2019

Papers in Regional Science

140

108

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“…Our modelling approach builds on work published by NIESR prior to the referendum (Ebell, Hurst, & Warren, 2016;Pain and Young, 2004) and in response to proposals subsequently put forward by the British government Hantzsche, Kara, Lenoel, & Piggott, 2018;Hantzsche, Kara, & Young, 2018). We model the economic impact of the government's proposed Brexit deal as the combined result of different Brexit-related shocks to the economy, namely, through trade, foreign direct investment, net migration, productivity and contributions to the EU budget.…”

Section: Modelling the Brexit Dealmentioning

confidence: 99%

The economic effects of the UK government's proposed Brexit deal

2019

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The focus of our analysis is on how the UK government's proposed Brexit deal is likely to affect the economy. First, we assess how trade, migration, foreign direct investment, productivity and contributions to the EU budget might change by reviewing current proposals against historical evidence. Second, we use the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) to analyse the macroeconomic effects. Our assessment is that trade with the EU, especially in services, would be more costly after Brexit. This would be likely to have adverse effects on living standards in the UK. Our central estimate is that if the government's proposed Brexit deal is implemented, then GDP in the longer term will be around 3% lower per head than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU. If the UK were to stay in a customs union with the EU, or if the Irish backstop position was to be invoked, there would still be a hit to GDP per capita of 2%. These estimates represent our considered view of the economic impact of the government's proposed Brexit deal, but they are themselves uncertain as there is no historical precedent of a country leaving a major trading block such as the EU.

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“…The focus of most existing research on Brexit has been on aggregate impacts across the economy. For example, both the UK Treasury (see HM Treasury, 2016a,b) and the UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) (see Baker et al 2016, Ebell andWarren, 2016) used the NIESR NiGEM model to estimate the macroeconomic impact of Brexit on the UK. The NiGem model, which is a world model, was also used to assess the implications of Brexit across OECD countries (Kierzenkowski et al 2016) while the EU Commission used their QUEST dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to estimate the impact on the EU (EC, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU

Lawless

Morgenroth

2019

Contemporary Social Science

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Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union

Cited by 46 publications

References 14 publications

The resilience of cities to economic shocks: A tale of four recessions (and the challenge of Brexit)

The resilience of cities to economic shocks: A tale of four recessions (and the challenge of Brexit)

The economic effects of the UK government's proposed Brexit deal

The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU

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