WellingtonTwice before, from 1966 and 1975, the writer has analysed underlying voting swings in a New Zealand general election, using a linear regression model'. The absence of electoral boundary changes in the 198 1 election enables the model to be used again for that year with only minor variations, and this note replicates the earlier analyses referred to.The model described in the 1977 article gives rise to three equations to be estimated, such as L* = 01 + (I1 -01) L + (nl -01) N + (sl -
In 1968 one of the authors developed with C. Gillion a method of analysing the outcome of the 1966 General Election based on a linear regression model, and essentially the same technique was subsequently applied to the 1975 and 1981 elections.' The method is applicable when there are no boundary changes between successive elections, so the 1990 election may be analysed with its aid.The model assumes that changes in the size of electorates, as measured by the number of potential voters, and the geographical distribution of electors between successive elections (in the absence of boundary changes) are relatively minor influences on the outcome, as are the qualities of individual candidates and other local factors. Instead it is hypothesized that the dominant influence is nation-wide voting swings between Labour, National and Other, the last comprising votes for minor parties, informal votes, special votes disallowed and non-votes so far as they can be assessed.It should be noted that &dquo;swing&dquo; in this paper means the proportion of votes secured by a party in 1987 which it retained in 1990 or which went to another party (or to wastage). The proportions, assumed to be the same throughout the country, were estimated by conventional regression methods across all (93) general electoral districts. They represent &dquo;average&dquo; voting trends, party to party, against which outcomes in individual electorates may be assessed.The number of Electors on the Master Roll (EMR) is not a good measure of the number of people qualified to vote but it is the only one available. It is in fact an under-estimate, possibly a serious one, for at least three reasons, namely that EMR excludes those who: -qualified after the roll closed, notably late enrolments.were on the dormant roll (having voted at the previous election), but who did not re-enrol, or were not on the dormant roll and did not re-enrol.However, for the country as a whole EMR increased by some 4% between 1987 and 1990, in line with the increase in population of voting age.1
The 1975 General Election produced an astonishing turn-about in the state of parties in the House of Representatives. Prior to the election, Labour held 55 seats to National's 32; following it, the situation was exactly reversed. It is accordingly of more than usual interest to analyse the underlying voting swings.Such an analysis, in quantitative terms, is facilitated by the absence 01 boundary changes in the intervening years, thus eliminating a potentially major source of variation in electoral voting patterns. Changes in the distribution of the voting population through new voters, deaths and net migration, of course, remain, and none of these need be neutral as regards party. In 1975 there was the special factor of 18-year-olds being eligible to vote for the first time. Net immigration (for the country as a whole) was also unusually large in the period 1972-75. Other novel factors were the enfranchisement of aliens and the re-definition of "Maori", permitting roll transfers.Nevertheless, the fundamental hypothesis of this paper is that changes in the size and composition of electorates and in the distribution of electors between electorates as well as the qualities of individual candidates were relatively minor influences on the outcome of the 1975 General Election. Instead, it is hypothesized that the overwhelmingly important factors were nation-wide voting swings between Labour, National and Wastagethe last comprising votes for minor parties, informal votes and non-votes (so far as these can be assessed).
It would be a brave person who tried to give a definitive answer to that question, as New Zealand is at an industrial relations crossroads at the present time. It is vital to the future that on both sides of the table we address ourselves to the issues we are facing and are likely to face for the remainder of the decade. The only answer one could give with any confidence would be - "change-, technological, economic and social."
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